759
FXUS61 KLWX 261920
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
220 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS PIVOTING ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND WILL DEPART THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN WITH A BIT OF WET SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL PIVOT WEST TO EAST THROUGH DARK, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER VIRGINIA. OVERALL, THE
SETUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR BUT THE LATEST COUPLE
CYCLES OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED DOWN (FOR NOW) ON TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART THIS EVENING, WITH MILD
WEATHER FOLLOWING INTO THE WEEKEND.
-2) A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART THIS EVENING,
WITH MILD WEATHER FOLLOWING INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WAS
GENERATING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ITS NORTH. THERE HAS
BEEN A FOCUSED BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP (IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND A MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS). THIS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE BAND - DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL FGEN/UPPER JET FORCING
CO-LOCATED WITH THE DGZ - CAN HAVE ITS ROOTS TRACED BACK TO
BLOOMINGTON IN EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIP WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY DARK, THOUGH LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT ALONG A STALLING FRONT COULD
REGENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER VA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF
FEBRUARY, WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 60F FOR MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE APPALACHAINS AND MD/PA
LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN MUCH COLDER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL RAIN AND
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
CHANCES OF A WINTER STORM THREAT ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASING FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE HIGH-20S/MID-
30S ON MONDAY, AND THIS ANTICIPATED MARGINAL RANGE IS PARTLY WHY THE
POTENTIAL RANGE OF IMPACTS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CAUSING POTENTIALLY
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE LOWS TO IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND ICON ARE ALL SHOWING SOME FORM OF
SNOW/ICE/FREEZING RAIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGIONS DURING
THEN, BUT THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR, AND TO WHAT
MAGNITUDE THEY MANIFEST AS EITHER WINTER PRECIPITATION OR COLD
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. AS PRECIP DEPARTS, EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE METRO CORRIDOR. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
1SM OR LESS VSBYS OVER THE VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN VA HEADING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH
BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
TWO POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY
COULD CAUSE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT TERMINALS. WINDS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL SOUTHERLY WIND
SHIFT ON TUESDAY. WINDS COULD START TO PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE
WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AT LESS
THAN 15 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
LOOKING LESS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE OVERALL OVER WATER ON TUESDAY. A W/SW WIND SHIFT IS
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/EST/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/EST/SRT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page