950
FXUS61 KLWX 271933
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
233 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAIN CHANGE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH RESPECT TO THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM, WAS A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR REGARDING P-TYPES FOR NOW. HOWEVER,
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORM WILL BE
SUPPRESSED, OWING TO A VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A MARGINAL WINTER STORM EVENT COULD IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE
WEEK.
-2) A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MARGINAL WINTER STORM EVENT COULD IMPACT THE
AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATER
IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS SET TO
IMPACT THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON LOCAL WINTER IMPACTS. MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-20S OVERNIGHT TO THE 30S DURING
THE DAY MEANS THAT A RANGE OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN/SLEET, AND COLD
RAIN COULD INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT AREAS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF CONSISTENT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION IN
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OUT OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. MODEL RUNS OVER THE
PAST DAY AND A HALF OR SO HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
PROJECTED OVERALL SEVERITY OF THIS EVENT HERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC,
BUT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AND SYSTEM TRACK ARE STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE
AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY LOW COULD ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE REGION IN THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME AS WELL. A ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT STAYS CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, CAUSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TO STALL SOMEWHAT. MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
EMERGE ONCE THE EARLY WEEK'S EVENT SETUP BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG.
A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE THAN ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY, LARGELY LINGERING FROM THE MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. THIS
HASN'T IMPACTED TEMPERATURES MUCH THOUGH, AS THERE HAVE STILL
BEEN PLENTY OF BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN TO SHINE
THROUGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T QUITE AS ROBUST WITH THE
SIGNAL FOR FOG, BUT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN DOWN IN THE VALLEYS OUT WEST.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
AND LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC. WHILE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA, THE DAYTIME SHOULD STILL FEATURE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST, WITH SOME EVEN CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND
INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT AT THE MOMENT COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES ARE AGAIN IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AS
WELL AS OUT ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY MID- MORNING SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY CORRESPONDING
TO A POSSIBLE WINTER EVENT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, IT REMAINS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS DURING THIS
PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH GUST
POTENTIAL UP TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
GENERALLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE.
WIND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WITH SCAS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING OVER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NECESSARY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT
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