681
FXUS61 KLWX 280908 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
408 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MODEST
AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A RETREATING FRONT COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
-2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
-3) A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A RETREATING FRONT COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY,
EVENTUALLY WEDGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION. WHILE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW, MOST 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DAYTIME HOURS OF MONDAY
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 30S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 40S.
THE FRONT THAT WAS SHOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. WHILE
THERE ISN'T A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, NOTABLE LIFT
WILL BE PROVIDED AS WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE. MOST 00Z MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE (FORECAST LOWS IN THE 20S), BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE ADVECTING WARMER AIR. THIS WIND DIRECTION AND THE
RETREATING FRONT COULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER, IF PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED FAR ENOUGH
INTO TUESDAY, MORE AREAS MAY JUST SEE PLAIN RAIN. REGARDLESS,
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID), SO AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY RETREATING OFF
THE COAST, MOST AREAS SHOULD JUST BE SEEING RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND AND MORE DATA COMES
IN, WE CAN NARROW THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHO GETS WHAT TYPE AND
HOW MUCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SOME LOW CLOUDS PERSIST TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA BUT LIKELY WON'T
MAKE TOO MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEFORE LIKELY DISSIPATING
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM THUS FAR, AND
WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ISSUES LIKE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S (NORTHEAST MD) TO
UPPER 60S (CENTRAL VA). THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA
WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED,
BUT WINDS MAY SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY, WITH SOME INDICATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING, AND A
SUBTLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND COULD SKIRT
ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THAT POINT,
THERMAL PROFILES ARE LIKELY STILL WARM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN RAIN,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO END AS
SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES. SOME CAMS INDICATE A WINTRY MIX FARTHER
EAST WITH FASTER COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER, AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS
OUTCOME AS IT WOULD REQUIRE ON TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL
AFTER SUNRISE WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. IN ANY EVENT, FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE SHOVED TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON, AND STRONG
PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE WINTER STORM AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT MAY NOT MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT COULD STALL
OR GET STRUNG ALONG ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OR THE MASON-DIXON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE MILDER AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE FRONT THAT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN. THROUGHOUT THE DAYS OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THIS PATTERN OF STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT AND ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BUT COULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THUS, MUCH WARMER DAYS AHEAD
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PUSHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD INTO CHO BUT LIKELY
WON'T MAKE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. TIMING REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM, THOUGH THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FOG NEAR MTN. OVERALL MUCH LOWER IMPACTS COMPARED TO FRIDAY
SHOULD ANY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
SURGING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
SPLIT AS TO WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL KEEP ANY
MENTIONS TO MVFR FOR NOW. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS (MRB/BWI/MTN) SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT, THERE MAY BE A GREATER
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, CHO MAY REMAIN DRY AND VFR.
BY AFTERNOON, CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KT.
MONDAY HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER AT MRB
AND BWI AND MTN IF AREAS OF RAIN OCCUR ALONG A FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THEN
SOUTHEAST 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TODAY, GENERALLY SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BAY BRIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL,
LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP, WITH SCAS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
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