174
FXUS61 KLWX 011516 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1016 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY HAS RETURNED AND CHANCES OF
A WINTRY MIX ARE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL, PRIMARILY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
TODAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 3) A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR PERIODICALLY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL,
PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MOST MODELS HAVE REVERSED COURSE AND NOW SHOW A LEAD SHORTWAVE
INCREASING LIFT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT IN NATURE DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW. EVEN SO, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
EDGE ABOVE FREEZING TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S. AS LONG AS THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIGHT IN NATURE, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. A HIGH END SCENARIO WOULD BRING 1 TO 3
INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARD WITH PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN AMOUNTS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT TO A
MINIMUM, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD COMING FROM FREEZING RAIN. THIS
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN DROP.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDER AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-95 WILL STAND THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF STAYING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THE LONGEST,
ESPECIALLY THE RIDGES. FOR THE MOST PART ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
ONLY AMOUNT TO A LIGHT GLAZE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD THEY
OCCUR. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.2
INCHES, BUT LIKELY REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT DATA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY
RETREATING OFFSHORE, SO WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN SOUTHERLY AND ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL ZONE
WILL STALL OUT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE
FREEZING, SO NO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD TODAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, GUSTING
20-25 MPH AT TIMES. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 20S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR PERIODICALLY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
OUR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN EARLY MARCH IS NEAR 50 FOR NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND OUR AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES IN EARLY MARCH IS NEAR 30
FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXCEEDED BY NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE DAYTIME AND 10 TO 15
DEGREES AT NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DECIDING
FACTOR AS TO HOW WARM IT GETS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE DETERMINED BY
CLOUD COVER, RAIN CHANCES, AND POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF EACH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME ON EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
THEIR WARM AND COLD FRONTAL POSITIONS. WHAT LOOKS TO BE MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS THAT WE WILL SEE THESE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FOUR DAY PERIOD. ONCE CAVEAT TO EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE
GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THAT COULD IMPACT THE
RISING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON ANY ONE OF THESE DAYS.
SHOULD THESE BACKDOOR FRONTS ACTUALLY OCCUR, THEN IT WOULDN'T BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NORTHEAST MARYLAND, ADJACENT
CHESAPEAKE BAY COMMUNITIES, AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND
EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE, WHILE 50 TO 150 MILES
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ENCOUNTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OF COURSE WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE, MORE PERIODS OF RAIN, OR
EVEN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH MAY GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY, SO THIS MAY NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN IMPACTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX AND IFR CONDITIONS. WHILE ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS POSSIBLE, THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
FREEZING RAIN. IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN WHICH AIRPORTS WILL SEE
WHICH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHEN. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY, AND ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN BY MIDDAY. LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH PASSING WARM
FRONTS, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, AND COLD FRONTS EACH PERIOD. HOWEVER;
IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORMS IN EITHER PERIOD, WE COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR DUE TO DRIZZLE, RAIN, OR FOG. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS EACH PERIOD. IF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FORMS, THEN NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS COULD RECEIVE A NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ANY PERIOD.
MARINE
THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME RELATIVE LULLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THE INTERIOR WATERWAYS THIS
EVENING, BUT NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE. SCA CONTINUES FOR THESE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM
MONDAY.
OVERALL LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY, AND MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NO MARINE HAZARDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS EACH PERIOD. A
BACKDOOR FRONT COULD BRING NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ANY
PERIOD ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND RAIN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
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