623
FXUS61 KLWX 170157 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CANCELED AS SOON AS LINE EXITS
THE LAND AREAS, WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 10 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
-2) A PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- 3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDNIGHT.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF T-STORM WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH DCA
REPORTING 59 KT AT 912 PM. REPORTS OF SLEET BEHIND THE FRONT
HERE AT THE OFFICE AND MRB AND THUNDERSNOW IN WESTERN ALLEGANY
AND GARRETT COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE IS ALREADY APPROACHING
WINCHESTER VA AND SHOUL CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA BY 05Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
BEHIND THE POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM, A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED FOR THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
FROM THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GARRETT CO. MD AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
HIGHLAND, GRANT AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT. AS
TEMPERATURES, COME CRASHING DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT,
THERE WILL BE A FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL AS LOWS PLUMMET INTO THE
TEENS. THIS COMES WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS.
WHILE SOME OF THIS SNOWFALL SPREADS DOWNSTREAM OFF THE TERRAIN
(TOWARD THE CATOCTINS/, THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST
SHOULD LIMIT ANY RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE A COLD AND BLUSTERY WINTER DAY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
LATEST FORECASTS FOR WIND GUSTS WOULD FALL IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER GUSTS CLOSER TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE ALLEGHENIES. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE STRETCH
AS WINDS DROP OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WITH MUCH LESS WIND, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WEEKEND, BUT
IT'S UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BRING ANY RAIN, AS WELL AS WHETHER THERE
IS A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT OR NOT.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND WIND
GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 25 KT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON,
THEN WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
MILD AIR ON TOP OF COOLER WATER IS NOT IDEAL FOR VERTICAL MIXING,
THE ROBUST WIND FIELD CERTAINLY COULD MIX DOWN AT TIMES. ON THE
CONVECTIVE SIDE OF THINGS, IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OVER THE
REGION.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MANY OF
WHICH WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE, WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS OR WAVES IN THE APPROACHING QLCS. TO ENSURE SAFETY,
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS TODAY AND SPENDING TIME ON THE
WATER IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A HIGH END SCENARIO WOULD BE CLOSE TO GALE CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SUN-SCA LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE WINDS TAKE
HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-501-502-
510.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ508.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ053>055-057-
501-502-505-506-526-527.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-504.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
502>504-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO
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