538
FXUS61 KLWX 171844
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, WITH SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
-2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, WITH SNOW SQUALLS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS
OVERHEAD LATER THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY
UP THROUGH THE DGZ IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
FURTHER EAST. SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INSTANTANEOUS SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN TOTAL,
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ALLEGHENIES, WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO SPILL EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE A LIGHT FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER COULD BE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA TOWARD
SOUTHERN MARYLAND, WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE
OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE MOMENT. IF THE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL AFTER DARK, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S) AND
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SNOW FROM
ACCUMULATING. ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
A CHILLY MARCH DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE
30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. AVERAGE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT. THAT SAID, MARCH IS TYPICALLY A VOLATILE
MONTH FOR TEMPERATURES, LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
DESPITE SOME RESIDUAL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S (TEENS FOR THE MOUNTAINS). EARLY
TOMORROW WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING. AFTER THAT, A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. A BRIEF FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE, BUT CHO AND MRB WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE. PROB30 GROUPS HAVEN BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS
THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
MAGNITUDE. WIND COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, BEFORE TURNING LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST, AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING SUB-SCA IN NATURE BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SUB-SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS
COULD NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538.
DISCUSSION...CS/KJP
AVIATION...KJP
MARINE...KJP
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