409
FXUS61 KLWX 181343
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
BUT WITH LESS WIND, BEFORE A WARMING TREND ENSUES.
-2) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH LESS WIND, BEFORE A WARMING TREND ENSUES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING POSITION ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS WEAKER THAN RECENT
DAYS, WITH ANY GUSTS STAYING AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS, LOCALLY UP
TO 20 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, BUT A NOTABLE WARM UP
OCCURS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WHICH CARRIES ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WHILE
CHILLY, TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO FREEZING GIVEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LOOKING ALOFT, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS GIVEN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
HOWEVER, THE 1000-500 MB LAYER GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 24-HOUR RISES OF AROUND 6 TO 8 DM PER DAY.
INCREASING THICKNESSES COUPLED WITH MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOW 60S ON FRIDAY. SOME SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE INTO THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, IT WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM
EACH DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE
MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 70S IN CENTRAL VA. ON SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER WITH THOSE IN NORTHERN MD IN THE
60S AND THOSE IN CENTRAL VA IN THE MID 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES
WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COLD TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FAVOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK WHICH LIMITS THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY, WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
REMAIN LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY. WEAK
GRADIENTS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL OVER
THE WATERS. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE FRIDAY WHICH COULD NEAR ADVISORY CALIBER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. WINDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SCAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WEST
WINDS ON SUNDAY MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS WINDS GUST 20 KNOTS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF
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