926
FXUS61 KLWX 190052 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WARMING TREND ENSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
-2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT
SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND ENSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE HEADING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK
WAVE.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WHILE CHILLY, TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO FREEZING GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
WAVE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO RESULT
IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NEAR AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FROM
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LOOKING ALOFT, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS GIVEN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
HOWEVER, THE 1000-500 MB LAYER GRADUALLY WARMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 24-HOUR RISES OF AROUND 6 TO 8 DM PER DAY.
INCREASING THICKNESSES COUPLED WITH MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOW 60S ON FRIDAY. SOME SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE INTO THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, IT WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SOME LOW CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
ON SATURDAY, THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S
FRONT, COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AND TRANSIENT GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH UPSTREAM IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF THE
CONTINENT. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER SATURDAY THAN
FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
QUICKLY IT DOES SO. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD
REACH ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 70S. THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. WEAK
INSTABILITY/LOW DEW POINTS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
IF THE FRONT WERE TO PASS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND DUE NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL LIKE KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD DOES START
INCREASING DURING THIS TIME. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FAVOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH ANY RESIDUAL LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS SUBSIDING BY DUSK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WINDS TURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GRADIENTS REMAIN
WEAK WHICH LIMITS THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY BUT SHIFT TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT.
WEAK GRADIENTS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL
OVER THE WATERS. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH COULD REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/LFR/BRO/DHOF
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