895
FXUS61 KLWX 191301
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. JUST
MONITORING THE DENSITY OF THE CLOUD COVER AS IT ROLLS BY.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WARMING TREND ENSUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY.
-2) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND ENSUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY.
AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD, A GRADUAL
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS WILL MARK THE START OF A WARMING TREND. MORE
NOTABLY, THE 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BY AROUND
7-10C SINCE YESTERDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY A SHIFT FROM
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TO WESTERLIES. WITH 850-MB FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C, DRY ADIABATIC MIXING WILL HELP RAISE
TODAY'S HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER, THIS COMES WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH. DESPITE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THIS COMES WITH A DRY FORECAST. SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
BY FRIDAY, FURTHER WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSH WELL INTO THE
60S, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, 850-700 MB WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP
IN STRENGTH, GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS. SOME OF
THIS COULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES, PARTICULARLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, THESE COULD EASILY BE CLOSER TO 35 MPH.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
BEFORE SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED WHICH SHOULD HOLD TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT
BEFORE DRYING OUT BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, A
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL YIELD A DRY AND VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY. WITH POTENTIAL MIXING INTO THE
850-750 MB LAYER, FORECAST HIGHS PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. SPOTTY MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO I-64.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES
WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE SKIES REMAIN
OVERCAST, CEILINGS ARE LARGELY STAYING IN THE 5,000 TO 7,000
FOOT RANGE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. THIS MAY YIELD
SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR WINDS,
GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLIES
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLIES INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WINDS TURN LIGHTER INTO THE NIGHT.
WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DURING PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LINGER MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS PRESENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
FEW SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BAY/RIVER BREEZES KICK IN.
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, EXPECT A FURTHER UPTICK AHEAD OF A
QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT AS GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLIES ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY.
WEST WINDS ON SUNDAY MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WINDS GUST TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY,
MAINLY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN POTOMAC. WINDS
DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF
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