421
FXUS61 KLWX 200050 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WARMING TREND ENSUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
BY LATE FRIDAY.
-2) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING SHOWERS; COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES DURING MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND ENSUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN A PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
BY FRIDAY, FURTHER WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSH WELL INTO THE
60S, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, 850-700 MB WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP
IN STRENGTH, GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS. SOME OF
THIS COULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES, PARTICULARLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED WHICH SHOULD HOLD TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE NIGHT BEFORE DRYING OUT BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, A
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL YIELD A DRY AND VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY. WITH POTENTIAL MIXING INTO THE
850-750 MB LAYER, FORECAST HIGHS PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. SPOTTY MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO I-64.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS; COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES DURING MIDWEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WEST AND IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND MONDAY MORNING; OTHERWISE, DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO AVERAGE
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY IN THE MORNING. DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THEN OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BRING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR
AVERAGE, THEN EVEN HIGHER TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS LARGELY STAY IN
THE 6,000 TO 12,000 FOOT RANGE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES. THIS MAY YIELD SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR WINDS, GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLIES TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLIES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WINDS
TURN LIGHTER INTO THE NIGHT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AT A FEW TERMINALS THAT ENCOUNTER ANY HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THEN SHIFTING WEST TO
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE; INCREASED GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS PRESENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
OTHERWISE, THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, EXPECT A FURTHER UPTICK AHEAD OF
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE NIGHT AS GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND 20-25
KNOTS. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLIES ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON
SATURDAY BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY,
THOUGH SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY, INCREASING
10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ531>534-538.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
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