467
FXUS61 KLWX 200617
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
217 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS GIVEN DRY AIR PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
-2) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
CONTINUED WARMING TREND TODAY WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS
EVENING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. GIVEN WIND FIELD, CURRENT THINKING IS BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
INCREASE THIS EVENING. SOME 00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP IN QPF
WITH THESE, BUT GIVEN OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE MOST AREAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. AREAS IN NE MD AND ALONG/WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY SUNRISE ON SAT. SPC DOES HAVE NW AREAS OF FA IN A MRGL
RISK, BUT GIVEN TIMING OF FROPA INTO THAT PART OF THE FA IS
AFTER PEAK HEATING THINK IT IS A LOWER END MRGL IN COORDINATION
WITH SPC.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, A
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL YIELD A DRY AND VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SAT. WITH POTENTIAL MIXING INTO THE
850-750 MB LAYER, FORECAST HIGHS PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. SPOTTY MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO I-64.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. A WARM S TO SW WIND WILL BRING
TEMPS TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVG INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND IN NE MD. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUN NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A
T-STORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS MON AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40S IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO LOW
70S IN CENTRAL VA. PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE FA BY MON AFTERNOON
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL ON TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST.
A TROUGH PIVOTING OVERHEAD MIDWEEK BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
PRECIP. MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING IMPACTS FROM THE
TROUGH, BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES. THIS MAY YIELD SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT MORNING. FOR WINDS, GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUTHWESTERLIES
INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAT. WINDS TURN
LIGHTER INTO THE NIGHT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF SUN INTO SUN EVENING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AT A FEW TERMINALS THAT ENCOUNTER ANY
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
NW WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON MON. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS PRECIP LINGERS AS A
COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT
ON TUE, BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT AS
GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLIES ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON SAT BEFORE LIGHT
SOUTHERLIES RETURN BY LATE SAT, THOUGH SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
SCAS LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUN, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW WITH
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT. NW WINDS ON MON GUST AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH SCAS LIKELY, MAINLY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
SOUTHERN POTOMAC. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA MON NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON TUE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/CPB
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