575
FXUS61 KLWX 201411
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES. RAIN SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE IN THE
NORTHWEST AROUND MID-AFTERNOON, THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND 7PM
THIS EVENING AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
LATER THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
-2) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUN THAN
CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN SPOTS. SHOWERS SHOULD REACH WESTERN
MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 2PM OR
3PM, REACHING NORTHERN I-81 AROUND 5PM, THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND
7PM AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND AROUND 10PM
OR 11PM. THESE TIMES ARE APPROXIMATE AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD DEVELOP SOONER GIVEN ADEQUATE SUNSHINE OR A FASTER
FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS ARE THUNDER AND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AT FIRST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS OVER 50MPH COULD OCCUR IN ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING IN DRY AIR AND COOLER AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S. SPOTTY MID 70S
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO I-64.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL BRING TEMPS TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVG INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND IN NE MD.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUN NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A
T-STORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS MON AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 40S IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO LOW
70S IN CENTRAL VA. PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE FA BY MON AFTERNOON
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL ON TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST.
A TROUGH PIVOTING OVERHEAD MIDWEEK BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
PRECIP. MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING IMPACTS FROM THE
TROUGH, BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES. THIS MAY YIELD SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT MORNING. FOR WINDS, GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUTHWESTERLIES
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAT. WINDS
TURN LIGHTER INTO THE NIGHT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF SUN INTO SUN EVENING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AT A FEW TERMINALS THAT ENCOUNTER ANY
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
NW WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON MON. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS PRECIP LINGERS AS A
COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT
ON TUE, BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW. POST- FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLIES
ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON SAT BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES RETURN
BY LATE SAT, THOUGH SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SAT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
SCAS LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUN, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW WITH
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT. NW WINDS ON MON GUST AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH SCAS LIKELY, MAINLY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
SOUTHERN POTOMAC. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA MON NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON TUE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB
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