260
FXUS61 KLWX 210046
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND PRESSED
EAST. A FEW MORE DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
-2) BENIGN WEATHER IS LIKELY MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WIND WILL USHER IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BUT STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHEAST MD. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BENIGN WEATHER IS LIKELY MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE A LITTLE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF TROUGHS, STARTS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH, AND IT MAY SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT WILL HAVE A
LARGE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO REACH THE
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF
THESE FRONTS COULD ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
MORE IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHT IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
INITIATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND MID-EVENING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP CIGS AND/OR VSBYS
TO MVFR BEFORE REBOUNDING TO VFR AT MRB AND MAYBE IAD, DCA, AND
BWI. WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS LATER OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT ON MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLIES
ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON SAT BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES RETURN
BY LATE SAT, THOUGH SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SAT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
SCAS LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUN, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
OF 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME GUSTS OF 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB
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