565
FXUS61 KLWX 210651
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SUNDAY HAS CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER WITH SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY.
-2) QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONTINUED
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NW TO SE. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WITH THESE
STORMS FOR MARCH, OWING TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. PROFILES
ALSO SHOW AN INVERSION RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOUDER RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OBSERVED. OTHERWISE, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WIND WILL USHER IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
BUT STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S TO LOWER
70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S WIDESPREAD WITH SOME LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHEAST MD. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUN NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SPC DOES HAVE THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK JUST
WEST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
1030-1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THIS TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURE MODERATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF TROUGHS/FRONTS, STARTS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH, AND IT MAY SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT WILL HAVE A
LARGE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO REACH THE
AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THESE FRONTS COULD ALSO IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPORTANT
HIGHLIGHT IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY 09Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SUN NIGHT
COLD FRONT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT ON MON. SIG WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PREDAWN AS GUSTS PUSH TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLIES
ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON SAT BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES RETURN
BY LATE SAT. GIVEN BRIEF DURATION, LIKELY CAN HANDLE WITH A MWS.
SCAS LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUN, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
OF 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT IN STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW'LY FLOW. SOME GUSTS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SCA LEVEL WINDS LIKELY THU AND AGAIN FRI AS THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES IN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-536-537-539>543.
DISCUSSION...CPB/EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
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