973
FXUS61 KLWX 211409
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY.
-2) QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THIS WIND WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S WIDESPREAD, WITH
SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHEAST MD.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SPC DOES HAVE
WESTERN MD, MUCH OF THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH- CENTRAL MD IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
1030-1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THIS TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURE MODERATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF TROUGHS/FRONTS, STARTS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH, AND IT MAY SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT WILL HAVE A
LARGE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO REACH THE
AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THESE FRONTS COULD ALSO IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE MORE IMPORTANT
HIGHLIGHT IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A COUPLE MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERED ABOUT
LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AGAIN, THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT COLD
FRONT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT ON MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SCA IN NATURE, BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO LOW-END SCA
LEVELS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
SCAS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW
WITH GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME GUSTS OF 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. SCA LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES IN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CPB/EST/KJP
AVIATION...CPB/EST/KJP
MARINE...CPB/EST/KJP
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