289
FXUS61 KLWX 221438
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VA, DC, THE EASTERN WV
PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MD THROUGH 7 PM
TODAY.
-A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ON
THE BAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE, AS WELL AS THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH NOON TODAY.
-A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FROM 2
AM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
-2) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION
(850 HPA TEMPS OF 15-17C). A CLIMATE SECTION HAS BEEN ADDED
BELOW TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY EVEN MAKING IT INTO THE MID- UPPER 80S.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY DELAYING STORMS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. THE FRONT ITSELF IS RATHER STRONG AND WILL BE OVER
PA DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF US DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ALMOST EVERY SOUNDING/MODEL ANALYZED HAS
CAPPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LINGERING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
AT THIS POINT, THE CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS OVER PA
WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. AS LOW- LEVELS STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THESE STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PA LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. AS STORMS DO MOVE IN AFTER DARK, THEY COULD STILL
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL, EVEN IF THEY'RE ELEVATED.
TODAY IS A DAY TO WATCH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AS IT
STANDS NOW, IT MAY BE A NEAR MISS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE
CAPPING SERVING AS A POTENTIAL SAVING GRACE.
THE DAY 1 SPC UPDATE HAS LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ELSEWHERE. SPC
ALSO HAS FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A SIG HAIL
OUTLOOK (INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+" HAILSTONES). THAT
HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL HIGH CEILING FOR THE SEVERITY OF STORMS
TODAY, IF THEY MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS OF NOW, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT, WITH REMNANT SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BENIGN WEATHER IS LIKELY DURING MID WEEK BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
MON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER (BUT
NEAR NORMAL), WITH HIGHS FOR MOST IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S (40S
MTNS). WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25-35 MPH OUT OF THE NW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
BELOW AVG TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE WED INTO
WED NIGHT WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF/WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THU. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW GIVEN AMPLE DRY AIR LEFTOVER
IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
PROVIDE SOME LINGERING INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY OF CANADA. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHOVE A FRONTAL ZONE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO CROSS FRI WITH DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW UP
OVER CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AN INCUMBENT DEEPENING
TROUGH EJECTING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN/MID-SOUTH REGION.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT FRI EVENING INTO
FRI NIGHT WHILE BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WITH THAT SAID, PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD REMAINS PER THE LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING, PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES,
TEMPERATURES, AND RAIN AMOUNTS LATE WEEK. THUS THE POSITION OF THIS
POTENTIALLY WAVERING FRONTAL ZONE MAY HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON
TEMPS THU AND FRI, THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
A BRING A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND COULD GUST AROUND
20 TO PERHAPS 30 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES, AND
POTENTIAL A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SUB- VFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BOTH
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK MON, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY (25-35 KNOTS) OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SOME TERMINALS
THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. MORE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
MARINE
WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY, AND COULD REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WARM AIR MOVING OVER MUCH
COOLER WATERS COULD LIMIT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WIDER WATERS. ONE PLACE MIXING SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT IS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
(NARROWER WATERWAYS) SO HAVE AN SCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT, CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY (SMWS MAY
BE NEEDED). CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS. SCAS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES IN.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS, GUSTY WINDS, AND WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA, DC, THE
EASTERN WV PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MD
THROUGH 7 PM. FURTHER EAST (ALONG THE BAY SHORE), AND FURTHER
WEST (IN THE ALLEGHENIES), RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER, LEADING TO A LESSER THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TOMORROW. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S,
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST (40S MOUNTAINS). ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, WITH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE WORST FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY (MARCH 22).
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
SITE RECORD/YEAR SET
DCA 90/1907
BWI 86/1907
IAD 83/1968
DMH 79/1955
NAK 82/1948
HGR 88/1907
MRB 84/1966
CHO 92/1907
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...KJP/CPB/EST
AVIATION...KJP/CPB/EST
MARINE...KJP/CPB/EST
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