526
FXUS61 KLWX 221952
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM FOR
WESTERN MARYLAND INTO A SMALL PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AFTER 7 OR 8 PM THIS EVENING,
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTHEAST STORMS PROGRESS. IN THESE
SITUATIONS SOMETIMES, EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN, WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AND WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG, GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
PERSIST FOR A BIT LONGER.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
-2) TURNING COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY.
-3) AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH JUST SOME THIN, PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING, WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHWARD AND MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL. AS A RESULT, AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PA IS
STARTING TO DESTABILIZE.
LOCALLY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG CAPPING, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. FURTHER NORTH, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL BE ABLE
TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP AND INITIATE STORMS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS APPEAR LIKELY. SPC HAS UPGRADED LOCATIONS TO OUR
NORTH TO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ENHANCED RISK AREA BARELY CLIPS A FEW SQUARE MILES OF WESTERN
MARYLAND. SPC HAS ALSO CIG'D BOTH THE WIND AND HAIL OUTLOOK
AREAS TO OUR NORTH, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HAILSTONES
LARGER THAN 2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER. THESE
CIG AREAS CLIP A SLIGHTLY LARGER PORTION OF WESTERN MD. A
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS POINT, THE CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW, GIVEN THE CAPPING IN PLACE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER PA WILL
LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND SHORTLY
AFTER DARK. AS LOW- LEVELS STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AS STORMS DO MOVE IN
AFTER DARK, THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL,
EVEN IF THEY'RE ELEVATED, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IF THEY HAVE A
WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS OF NOW IS FOR A NEAR MISS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
TRENDS GIVEN THE HIGH POTENTIAL CEILING OF THE EVENT (AS
INDICATED BY THE CIG AREAS FOR BOTH WIND AND HAIL FROM SPC).
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MD AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WV PANHANDLE BETWEEN 8
PM AND MIDNIGHT. STORMS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
BALTIMORE METRO. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STILL MOVE THROUGH
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TURNING COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, USHERING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
FOR MOST (40S MOUNTAINS). NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASING, AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY,
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE MOMENT, IT APPEARS UNLIKELY A FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND GREAT LAKES WILL BE
ABLE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUS, THERE
SHOULD BE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND POTENTIAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES, MOST PLACES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SECOND LOW WILL RACE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY
MORNING, SENDING A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD. WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE SURVIVES CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS WELL, BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOWER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS ANY OF THAT ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START A
DOWNWARD TREND FRIDAY, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT'S
PROGRESS. BELIEVE THE FRONTAL MOISTURE SHOULD DEPART BEFORE IT
BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AND OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT, WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT,
LEADING TO AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH. SOME
SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT, BUT AT THE MOMENT, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO BE VERY LOW, WITH MRB STANDING THE GREATEST CHANCE. LOW
CEILINGS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING TOMORROW AS WIND PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERY LIGHT TO CALM ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KT ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY.
MARINE
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE WIDER WATERS MAY APPROACH LOW-END SCA
LEVELS THIS EVENING WITHIN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THOSE GUSTS REACHING SCA LEVEL REMAINS LOW GIVEN VERY WARM
AIR (80S) OVER COLD WATER (50S).
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT, CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH. SCA GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HOWEVER, ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH
ADVISORIES POTENTIALLY NEEDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST. THIS COMBINATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS, GUSTY WINDS, AND WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA, DC, THE
EASTERN WV PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MD
THROUGH 7 PM. FURTHER EAST (ALONG THE BAY SHORE), AND FURTHER
WEST (IN THE ALLEGHENIES), RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER, LEADING TO A LESSER THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TOMORROW. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S,
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 20S IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST (40S MOUNTAINS). ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, WITH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE WORST FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY (MARCH 22).
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
SITE RECORD/YEAR SET
DCA 90/1907
BWI 86/1907
IAD 83/1968
DMH 79/1955
NAK 82/1948
HGR 88/1907
MRB 84/1966
CHO 92/1907
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KJP
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