559
FXUS61 KLWX 120110
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND SLIDES OFFSHORE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PREVENTING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS, BUT NOT REALLY
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THAT
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THAT
IS BASED ON THE HIGH-END PROBABILITIES FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
STILL, ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR APRIL COULD BE SET OR
BROKEN. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD AS DRY/GUSTY DAYS CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC RETREATS ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION, BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT TO THE 80S. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY FROPA. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COULD BE (REALLY STRESSING THE
COULD BE; NOT GUARANTEED) NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING AROUND 20-25
KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
SOME LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL GUSTING AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE REGION MAINTAINS WINDS JUST BELOW
SCA LEVELS TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK, BUT COULD STILL BE SOME
PERIODS OF NEAR 20 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS PARTICULARLY VOLATILE IN REGARDS TO FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE-BUILDING EVENT
WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING, TEMPERATURES
FOR MID-APRIL. THERE COULD BE A 3 TO 5 DAY SPAN, AT LEAST, WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THIS WILL BE PAIRED
WITH VERY POOR MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL, WITH MOST DAYS SEEING MIN RH
VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME DAYS MIX OUT EVEN LOWER RH
VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN HIGHER, BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 40S. THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH ONGOING/RAPIDLY WORSENING DROUGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE AT LEAST FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AS WELL, WITH MONDAY BEING THE FIRST DAY TO WATCH
EXTREMELY CLOSELY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION,
ALBEIT NOT A GREAT ONE. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
BUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, AND THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS US
HOT AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
LASTLY, WANTED TO MAKE A NOTE ON GREEN UP. WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN
UP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT LATEST VIIRS GEOCOLOR IMAGERY
STILL HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ITSELF.
THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY STILL VERY VULNERABLE AND SHOULD BE MONITORED
VERY CLOSELY OVER THIS NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS UPCOMING WEEK,
FOR BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME
STATIONS COULD TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KLW/KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page