972  
FXUS61 KLWX 121330  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
930 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026  
   
WHAT HAS CHANGED  
 
NO CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO COORDINATE THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ON MONDAY.  
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- 1) NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER THREAT  
LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE  
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PREVENTING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM  
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS NOW  
SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN  
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WHILE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED,  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAY LESSEN THE FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT A BIT.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES  
THAT REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WHEN MID 90S  
ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THAT IS BASED ON THE HIGH-END  
PROBABILITIES FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE. STILL, ALL-TIME HIGH  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR APRIL COULD BE SET OR BROKEN. FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE  
SPREAD AS DRY/GUSTY DAYS CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC RETREATS ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO  
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION, BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A  
BIT TO THE 80S. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY FROPA. THE NEXT CHANCE  
FOR SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COULD BE (REALLY STRESSING THE  
COULD BE; NOT GUARANTEED) NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE AREA TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING AROUND 20-25  
KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO  
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AND WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT. HIGH PRESSURE  
NEAR THE REGION MAINTAINS WINDS JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY  
INTO MID WEEK, BUT COULD STILL BE SOME PERIODS OF NEAR 20 KNOT  
GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY  
CHANNELING.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS PARTICULARLY VOLATILE IN REGARDS TO FIRE  
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE-BUILDING EVENT  
WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL  
YIELD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING,  
TEMPERATURES FOR MID-APRIL. THERE COULD BE A 3 TO 5 DAY SPAN, AT  
LEAST, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THIS  
WILL BE PAIRED WITH VERY POOR MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL, WITH  
MOST DAYS SEEING MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO  
SEE SOME DAYS MIX OUT EVEN LOWER RH VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
20S. THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHER, BUT  
STILL ONLY IN THE 40S. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, COMBINED  
WITH ONGOING/RAPIDLY WORSENING DROUGHT AND GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY  
WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE AT LEAST FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS EACH DAY  
THROUGH THURSDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS WELL,  
WITH MONDAY BEING THE FIRST DAY TO WATCH EXTREMELY CLOSELY.  
 
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION,  
ALBEIT NOT A GREAT ONE. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,  
BUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS  
POINT, AND THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS US  
HOT AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.  
 
LASTLY, WANTED TO MAKE A NOTE ON GREEN UP. WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN  
UP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT LATEST VIIRS TRUE IMAGERY  
STILL HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ITSELF.  
THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY STILL VERY VULNERABLE AND SHOULD BE  
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY OVER THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS UPCOMING WORKWEEK,  
FOR BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME  
STATIONS COULD TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND  
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.  
 
APRIL 14  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)  
 
APRIL 15  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)  
 
APRIL 16  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)  
 
APRIL 17  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)  
 
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960  
4/27/1915  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,  
4/18/1896  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915  
 
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009  
 
 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-536-  
537-539>541-543.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-  
538-542.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-  
538-542.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR  
AVIATION...LFR/KRR  
MARINE...LFR/KRR  
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