581
FXUS61 KLWX 121903
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPS ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS REACH AT LEAST THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 90S ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST DAYS WILL KEEP THE HEAT
RISK AT BAY, BUT EXPECTING SEVERAL DAYS TO BE PARTICULARLY HOT
AS WE APPROACH RECORD WARMTH FOR APRIL.
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY DISSIPATES SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BY THE EVENING. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. IT BECOMES NOTICEABLY BREEZY FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FROPA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY
WHAT KEEPS OUR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
EVEN THOUGH SOME SUBTLE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT REMAIN NEARBY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THE DRY AIRMASS LIKELY PREVENTS MUCH
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAYBE BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE-BUILDING EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING, TEMPERATURES FOR MID-APRIL. THERE COULD
BE A 3 TO 5 DAY SPAN, AT LEAST, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. THIS WILL BE PAIRED WITH VERY POOR MOISTURE RETURN
AS WELL, WITH MOST DAYS SEEING MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S
DURING THE AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME DAYS MIX OUT EVEN LOWER RH VALUES INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHER,
BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 40S. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH
ONGOING/RAPIDLY WORSENING DROUGHT AND GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE AT LEAST FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS COULD NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ONE FOR MONDAY, AS
RH TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE DID COME UP A BIT.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION,
ALBEIT NOT A GREAT ONE. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
BUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, AND THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS US
HOT AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
LASTLY, WANTED TO MAKE A NOTE ON GREEN UP. WE ARE STARTING TO GREEN
UP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT LATEST VIIRS GEOCOLOR IMAGERY
STILL HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ITSELF.
THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY STILL VERY VULNERABLE AND SHOULD BE MONITORED
VERY CLOSELY OVER THIS NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS UPCOMING WORKWEEK,
FOR BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME
STATIONS COULD TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-536-
537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
538-542.
DISCUSSION...KRR
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR
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