541
FXUS61 KLWX 130753
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS WEEK AS
HIGHS REACH AT LEAST THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
90S ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FOR MOST DAYS WILL KEEP THE HEAT RISK AT
BAY, BUT EXPECTING SEVERAL DAYS TO BE PARTICULARLY HOT AS WE
APPROACH RECORD WARMTH FOR APRIL.
A FEW VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AS A LEE-SIDE TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA THU NIGHT KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S, BUT NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED SINCE IT WILL CROSS THE
AREA AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDY WITH FREQ GUSTS
20-30 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOT AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT AS WINDY TUE-FRI WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 90S. AS A RESULT, WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY MONDAY HAS TRENDED COOLER SINCE YESTERDAY
WITH THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT, RH'S
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FROM
YESTERDAY OR A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. A FEW VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, ENOUGH TO KEEP RH'S ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, AN SPS IS STILL WARRANTED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
90 DEGREES WITH MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
ELEVATED.
NEXT WEEK...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER FIRE WEATHER RISK.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-536>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR
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