736
FXUS61 KLWX 131920
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH NEAR RECORD
WARMTH STILL EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MIDWEEK AS HIGHS
EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR SOME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MIDWEEK
AS HIGHS EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR SOME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
RETURN FLOW USHERING IN WARM AIR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALOFT,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST. ON TUESDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST WITH ONLY THOSE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S. THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S WITH RECORD LEVELS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE RECORD
HIGH WILL BE BROKEN AT IAD, DCA, AND BWI BY 1-2 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
HIGHS TRENDED DOWN FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY. IN ADDITION TO
RECORD HIGHS CLOSE TO BEING BROKEN, THE RECORD WARM LOW IS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT EITHER WAY, NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH A MODERATE HEAT RISK. EARLY SEASON HEAT
CAN BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN MID SUMMER AS MANY ARE NOT ACCLIMATED
TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KIAD AND KMRB TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOW 5 TO
10 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KMRB
AND KCHO WHERE GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS
TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY SHIFT TO WEST ON FRIDAY,
BLOWING AROUND 10 KNOTS EACH DAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TUESDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL SCA POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA ACROSS ALL WATERS ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING
LESSEN SOME OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO SOME LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
25-30 MPH, AND UP TO 30-35 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST, NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS IS
KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE 40-50PCT IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK EXPECT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME ELEVATED AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE 80S
TO 90S EACH DAY. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHERE SOME AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 90S. WINDS ARE GOING
TO BE LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT STILL LOOKING AT
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE GOING TO BE AROUND 30-35 PCT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THURSDAY LIKELY HAVING THE LOWEST RH VALUES
AROUND 20-30 PCT. THURSDAY COULD BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAY OF
THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS LESSENS SOME
OF THE EXTREME WARMTH AS HIGHS REACH THE 80S AND THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PRECEDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT, NOT EXPECTING A WETTING RAIN FROM THIS FOR
MOST AREAS.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KRR
AVIATION...AVS
MARINE...AVS
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