256
FXUS61 KLWX 141425
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE WEATHER SPS WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MARGINAL RISK
STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASED A BIT, MAY NEED TO INCREASE MORE, AS 12Z HIGH
RES GUIDANCE COMES IN.
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH MINIMUM AND HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK EACH
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM AND HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK EACH
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA, AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAIN. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS REACH
90F.
THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WHEN IT COMES TO
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STILL, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG. SOME OF THE HIG RES MODELS INDICATE
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KT ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BALTIMORE TO
WINCHESTER TO PETERSBURG.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE,
CRESTING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY SUPPORTING RECORD WARMTH AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WHILE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT WARM BIAS IN
TEMPERATURES RECENTLY, MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT 92-93 DEGS WED AND
THU RESPECTIVELY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S, WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLE COMFORTABLE. AS FOR CONVECTION, VERY NEGLIGIBLE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WED AND THU AS UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE
AREA.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY AFTERNOON SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT MRB, BWI, MTN,
AND MAYBE DCA/IAD. WILL EVALUATE THE NEW GUIDANCE TO SEE IF
PROB30 FOR TSRA NEEDS TO BE ADDED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. SOME RISK OF CONVECTION FRIDAY.
MARINE
SCA ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS VALID 17Z-00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REPEAT ITSELF BOTH WED AND THU. RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRI.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY THROUGH THU DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH. WED AND THU WILL HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES
WITH VALUES IN THE MID 20S. AN RFW MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WED
AND THU.
CLIMATE
RECORD HI MAX SEEM UNLIKELY TODAY, BUT RECORD HI LOW SEEM MORE
LIKELY. WED AND THU LIKELY TO SEE NEW RECORDS SET AS HIGHS
REACH 92-93 DEGS.
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR
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