638  
FXUS61 KLWX 141837  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
237 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026  
   
WHAT HAS CHANGED
 
 
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING, MOSTLY IN THE POTOMAC  
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MD.  
 

 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- 1) NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE  
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE  
HAS LOW COVERAGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED SINCE GREATER FORCING WILL  
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. STILL, THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN THE POTOMAC  
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MD. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN PA REACHING NORTH/NORTHEAST MD THIS  
EVENING. IF THAT HAPPENS IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THAT IS LOW, AND ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO BE  
MINIMAL.  
 
NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE, SO HEAT  
INDICES ARE GOING TO BE THE SAME (OR LOWER) THAN AIR TEMPERATURES.  
STILL, THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO AVOID  
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.  
 
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PA TOMORROW AS ANOTHER  
FRONT APPROACHES, BUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION NORTH OF  
OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, BUT IT WON'T BRING ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS TEMPS WILL  
STILL BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE  
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10" FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE  
THE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT  
ARRIVES.  
 
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
WILL FORM LATER THIS WEEK, AND WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS  
THE EAST COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE  
CURRENTLY WELL ALIGNED ON A SUNDAY TIMEFRAME FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT  
STEMMING FROM THIS TROUGH TO TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. AFTER  
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S, EXPECT  
A SHARP DROP IN DAILY HIGHS ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH  
EARLY MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING A 10-20 DEGREE OVERALL DROP IN  
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS  
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT; THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN AT  
THIS TIME, WITH ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SIGNATURES AND  
NCAR'S AI CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FORECAST CURRENTLY PLACING THE AREA  
UNDER A 15-30% LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO  
PERSIST FOR A BIT ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY  
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE AND IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS  
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING PRODUCES A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20  
KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.  
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN  
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONTS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST  
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING  
AROUND 20-25 MPH, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25-35 PERCENT. FIRE  
WEATHER SPSS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EACH DAY, WITH COORDINATION FROM  
LOCAL FIRE PARTNERS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES TO HONE IN ON AREAS  
THAT ARE MOST SENSITIVE. THE ONGOING LACK OF RAIN IS GOING TO  
CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, WITH FUEL MOISTURES DECREASING A BIT  
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAY DUE TO A  
COMBINATION OF RH VALUES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT AND WIND GUST AROUND  
20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY DRY AIR  
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THIS COULD POSSIBLY DROP RH VALUES BELOW  
20 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. IF THESE LOW RH VALUES COME TO FRUITION,  
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY BENEFICIAL WETTING  
RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING WHETHER MOST OF THE AREA SEES A WETTING RAIN, IT COULD BE  
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THIS FRONT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD  
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.  
 
APRIL 14  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)  
 
APRIL 15  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)  
 
APRIL 16  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)  
 
APRIL 17  
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)  
 
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960  
4/27/1915  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,  
4/18/1896  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915  
 
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896  
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915  
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ANZ530>543.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT  
AVIATION...KRR  
MARINE...KRR  
 
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