722
FXUS61 KLWX 150101
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR THE MD/PA LINE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A PERTURBATION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZATION, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. WITH NIGHTFALL AND COOLING
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION A FEW HOURS AGO, THE CURRENT
STORMS (AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT) SEEM TO BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. HOWEVER, SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE STILL DRY (CEILING HEIGHTS
AROUND 8KFT), SO GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT OR DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ANY REMNANTS FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. TONIGHT'S
FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE NEAR THE AVERAGE
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.
NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE, SO HEAT
INDICES ARE GOING TO BE THE SAME (OR LOWER) THAN AIR TEMPERATURES.
STILL, THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO AVOID
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PA TOMORROW AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES, BUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION NORTH OF
OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT IT WON'T BRING ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS TEMPS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10" FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL FORM LATER THIS WEEK, AND WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL ALIGNED ON A SUNDAY TIMEFRAME FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM THIS TROUGH TO TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S, EXPECT
A SHARP DROP IN DAILY HIGHS ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH
EARLY MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING A 10-20 DEGREE OVERALL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT; THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN AT
THIS TIME, WITH ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SIGNATURES AND
NCAR'S AI CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FORECAST CURRENTLY PLACING THE AREA
UNDER A 15-30% LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FOR A BIT ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRADDLING THE MD/PA
LINE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AVOID
THE TERMINALS, BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MRB, BWI, AND MTN.
THERE COULD ALSO BE WIND SHIFTS DUE TO OUTFLOW. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE AND IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW.
MARINE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE WIDER
MID-BAY WATERS WHERE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING PRODUCES A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONTS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 MPH, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25-35 PERCENT. FIRE
WEATHER SPSS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EACH DAY, WITH COORDINATION FROM
LOCAL FIRE PARTNERS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES TO HONE IN ON AREAS
THAT ARE MOST SENSITIVE. THE ONGOING LACK OF RAIN IS GOING TO
CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, WITH FUEL MOISTURES DECREASING A BIT
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. LOCAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF REPRIEVE IN THOSE AREAS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RH VALUES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT AND WIND GUST AROUND
20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY DRY AIR
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THIS COULD POSSIBLY DROP RH VALUES BELOW
20 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. IF THESE LOW RH VALUES COME TO FRUITION,
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY BENEFICIAL WETTING
RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER MOST OF THE AREA SEES A WETTING RAIN, IT COULD BE
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THIS FRONT.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/KRR
MARINE...ADS/KRR
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