375
FXUS61 KLWX 151339
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE MAIN
CHANNEL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR A FIRE WEATHER SPS TODAY, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR-RECORD APRIL HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TODAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE, SO
HEAT INDICES ARE GOING TO BE THE SAME (OR LOWER) THAN AIR
TEMPERATURES. STILL, THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE
STEPS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PA THIS AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES, BUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT IT WON'T BRING ANY RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY, BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.05" FOR ANY GIVEN
AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL FORM LATER THIS WEEK, AND WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE 15/00Z MODEL RUNS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL ALIGNED ON A SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR A
STRONG COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM THIS TROUGH TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S, EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN DAILY HIGHS ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH EARLY MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING A 10-20
DEGREE OVERALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM OR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR A
BIT ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW.
MARINE
NEW SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MAIN CHESAPEAKE BAY CHANNEL FROM
18Z THIS AFTERNOON TO 00Z TONIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING PRODUCES A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONTS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS AND MIN_RH LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN SPS THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...GUIDANCE SHOW ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING DAY WITH DEEP MIXING, RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES, AND
SUFFICIENTLY LOW RH'S IN THE MID 20S. POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINT
BOMB DAY GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. LASTLY, LOW MAXRH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT/EARLY THU WILL DRIVE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VERY
HIGH MAKING ANY WILDFIRES TO BURN HOTTER AND MAKE CONTAINMENT
AND/OR SUPPRESSION EFFORTS MORE DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS FIRE WX DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 MPH, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25-35 PERCENT. FIRE
WEATHER SPSS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY, WITH COORDINATION
FROM LOCAL FIRE PARTNERS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES TO HONE IN
ON AREAS THAT ARE MOST SENSITIVE. THE ONGOING LACK OF RAIN IS
GOING TO CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, WITH FUEL MOISTURES
DECREASING A BIT EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. LOCAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF REPRIEVE
IN THOSE AREAS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RH VALUES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT AND WIND GUST AROUND
20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY DRY AIR
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THIS COULD POSSIBLY DROP RH VALUES BELOW
20 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. IF THESE LOW RH VALUES COME TO FRUITION,
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY BENEFICIAL WETTING
RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER MOST OF THE AREA SEES A WETTING RAIN, IT COULD BE
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THIS FRONT.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 14
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)91F (1960) 65F (2014)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)
APRIL 15
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)89F (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page