658
FXUS61 KLWX 160115
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS GUST
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE MID APRIL HIGHS. ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH.
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MEAGER AT
LESS THAN 0.10" FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL FORM LATER THIS WEEK, AND WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL ALIGNED ON A SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM THIS TROUGH TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S, EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN
DAILY HIGHS ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH EARLY MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING A 10-20 DEGREE OVERALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT; THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTERWARDS, ALLOWING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR A BIT ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
GUST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT, IT WOULD TAKE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO DIMINISH THE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA AS MINIMUM RHS FALL INTO THE 20S. IF APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES MAY EMERGE ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FRIDAY. WINDS GUST 15 TO 25
KNOTS THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY.
SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE BAY OVERNIGHT IN CHANNELED SOUTHERLY
FLOW, BUT WAS NOT SEEING ENOUGH OF A SUSTAINED THREAT TO EXTNED
THE ADVISORY. ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING PRODUCES A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONTS
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH
AFTERNOON WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH, AND
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25-35 PERCENT. THE ONGOING LACK OF
RAIN IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, WITH FUEL MOISTURES
DECREASING A BIT EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. LOCAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF REPRIEVE
IN THOSE AREAS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RH VALUES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT AND WIND GUST AROUND
20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY DRY AIR
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THIS COULD POSSIBLY DROP RH VALUES BELOW
20 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. IF THESE LOW RH VALUES COME TO FRUITION,
IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY, LOOKS TO BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF AN SPS AS SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, WHICH WAS
CORROBORATED WITH STATE FIRE PARTNERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY BENEFICIAL WETTING
RAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER MOST OF THE AREA SEES A WETTING RAIN, IT COULD BE
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THIS FRONT. THUS, THERE MAY BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 15
*NEW RECORD TODAY
LOCATION RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 89F* (1941) 65F (2023)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 87F* (1967) 62F (2023)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 88F* (1941) 65F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 92F* (2024) 67F (1960)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F* (1941) 63F (1967)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F* (2024) 68F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 85F* (1960) 61F (2023)
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/AVS/SRT
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