236
FXUS61 KLWX 160800
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARMTH AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME TODAY, RECORD WARMTH AND NEAR
CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START BREAKING DOWN LATER TODAY.
THIS IS A WELL KNOWN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
WESTERN U.S WHICH CAUSES DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION OF THE
CONUS. THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE HERE, BUT WEAK CAPPING MAY
ALLOW DEEP MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND STRONGER WINDS.
ASSUMING A HIGH OF 93 AND IF DEWPOINTS HOLD AT 52 DEGREES
THROUGH THE DAY, THIS ALREADY YIELDS A 25% RH. YESTERDAY, WE SAW
RH'S DROPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT SAWMILL RIDGE RAWS.
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE RH'S DROP BELOW 20% AND
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH IF THAT DEEPER MIXING IS REALIZED,
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS WILL START MAKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER DARK,
BUT WILL START TO FADE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ONLY A 20% POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. DRY FRI AND SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S OR FALL OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN, GIVING WAY TO
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST (LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST OF I-95), WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO COULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST ON MONDAY
(40S MOUNTAINS, LOWER 60S CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD). FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LIKELY INCREASE AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE ULTIMATE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH, THERE COULD BE FROST AND/OR
FREEZE CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT IF WINDS GO CALM. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY, AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BE LOW AGAIN ON TUESDAY
(MINIMUM VALUES IN THE 20S), BUT WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
COMPARED TO MONDAY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO
NW LATE TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN, BUT IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
MARINE
SCA ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS 18-23 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A SOLID RFW EVENT AS FUEL MOISTURE, ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT (ERCS), ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT,
AND RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL, AND LOW RH'S
WILL LIKELY OFFSET THE LACK OF OF STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS.
EVEN WITH THE LACK OF STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS, FREQ GUSTS
OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 30
MPH IF DEEPER MIXING IS REALIZED.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RH'S AND
LACK OF RAIN.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>533-535>537-539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP
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