220
FXUS61 KLWX 161431
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES EASTWARD TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. WHERE THE
UPGRADE TO WARNING HAS NOT OCCURRED, SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
REMAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARMTH AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE REGION IS OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START AFTER NEAR RECORD
BREAKING HEAT OVERNIGHT. EARLY/MID MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO CLIMB WELL INTO 70S WITH PATCHES OF LOW 80S
UNDERNEATH FILTERED SUNSHINE. THE GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE
CHANNEL DOES SHOW SOME CLEARING UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS EVENTUALLY SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED
SUNSHINE/INSOLATION TOWARD THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE 12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS A STOUT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. HOWEVER, THIS IS LIKELY TO MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR
AS INTENSE SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE 975-800 MB LAYER WILL ASSIST IN RAPID HEATING OF THE GROUND
TODAY. NEAR DRY ADIABTIC MIXING FROM 800-MB (CURRENTLY 12-14C)
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. WHILE THE
12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 98F, THAT
SHOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.
GIVEN THE LENGTHY PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
CONTINUED HEATING OF THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN GROUND, FUELS HAVE
FURTHER DRIED OUT (MORE INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION). ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, THERE SHOULD BE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH GIVEN
THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THESE COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
TIMES BASED ON FORECAST WINDS IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER. WITH
GREEN UP NOT UNDERWAY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, RED FLAG
WARNINGS WERE ISSUED EARLIER ON THE SHIFT. THIS MEANS WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THUS,
OBEY ANY LOCAL AND STATE BURN BANS WHILE THESE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
SOME SHOWERS WILL START MAKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER DARK,
BUT WILL START TO FADE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ONLY A 20% POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. DRY FRI AND SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S OR FALL OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN, GIVING WAY TO
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST (LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST OF I-95), WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO COULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR MOST ON MONDAY
(40S MOUNTAINS, LOWER 60S CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD). FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LIKELY INCREASE AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE ULTIMATE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH, THERE COULD BE FROST AND/OR
FREEZE CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT IF WINDS GO CALM. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY, AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BE LOW AGAIN ON TUESDAY
(MINIMUM VALUES IN THE 20S), BUT WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
COMPARED TO MONDAY.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO
NW LATE TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN, BUT IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
MARINE
SCA ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS 18-23 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL SHORT OF
CRITERIA, THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH (POSSIBLY NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES)
GIVEN DEEP MID-APRIL MIXED LAYERS. OTHERWISE, THIS IS A SOLID
RED FLAG WARNING EVENT WITH VERY DRY FUEL MOISTURES, HIGH
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERCS), ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT, RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL, AND LOW
RH'S WILL LIKELY OFFSET THE LACK OF STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RH'S AND
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
504-507-508.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-535>537-539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP
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