769
FXUS61 KLWX 161915
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING. ANY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, HAVE ADDED FURTHER WORDING ON THE LATE
WEEKEND SHOWER THREAT ALONG WITH THE SHIFT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPEATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES BY THE NIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERSISTENT COOL
TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARMTH AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES BY THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED, HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EASTERN SHORE WHILE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN TO
PERCOLATE OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE,
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WITH AMPLE WARMTH IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DEEP MIXED
LAYER HAVE UNFOLDED ONCE EARLY MORNING INVERSIONS ERODED. RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT UP TO
AROUND 800-750 MB. AS SUCH, NEAR DRY ADIBATIC LAPSE RATES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (PER 2
PM OBSERVATIONS). THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE TO RISE ANOTHER 2
TO 4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A
NUMBER OF SPOTS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 90S WHICH AGAIN SURPASSES
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE SITES. ONCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY HAVE BECOME OFFICIAL, RECORD EVENT STATEMENTS (RER)
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL MIXING IN THE COLUMN, A BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS OF TERRAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF RECORD HEAT, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND BREEZY
WINDS ATOP DRIED OUT FUELS WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. AS SUCH, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FROM THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE BLUE RIDGE. CONTINUE TO OBEY
LOCAL AND STATE BURN BANS.
SOME SHOWERS, INCLUDING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, WILL START
MAKING INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AFTER DARK. HOWEVER, THESE
SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IS AROUND 20
PERCENT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, NO DAILY RECORDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE
80S. THIS DOES COME WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
A LARGE PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MORE LIMITED GIVEN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES BY OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER, PASSING SHOWERS, AND COLD ADVECTION WINDS WILL YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S (40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERSISTENT COOL TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER STILL
REMAINS A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR MONDAY AS DRY, GUSTY WINDS PERSIST
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES BEFORE CALMING OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY,
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL RANGE BETWEEN 43F-60F, WITH LOWS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PROVIDED THAT WINDS ARE CALM BY THEN, FROST/FREEZE COULD BE
A CONCERN AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM UP LATER
IN THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS AT UPPER LEVELS, WITH THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING AROUND MIDWEEK AS A SECOND POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY
ATTENDANT SHOWERS FALL APART ONCE THEY GET EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. FRIDAY'S WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ANY DIRECT MENTION (PROB30) WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE
IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON MONDAY, WITH
15-20 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KCHO AND
20-25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS, WHILE REMAINING UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE, GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT, ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS CONTINUED NORTHWEST
WINDS FLOW 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS GUSTS
FALL BELOW SCA GUIDELINES BY THE EARLY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL SHORT OF
CRITERIA, THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH (POSSIBLY NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES)
GIVEN DEEP MID-APRIL MIXED LAYERS. OTHERWISE, THIS IS A SOLID
RED FLAG WARNING EVENT WITH VERY DRY FUEL MOISTURES, HIGH
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERCS), ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT, RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL, AND LOW
RH'S WILL LIKELY OFFSET THE LACK OF STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RH'S AND
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. A WETTING RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO QUELL A RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A
VERY DRY AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN THIS WEEK, FOR BOTH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES. SOME STATIONS COULD
TIE OR SET THEIR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL.
APRIL 16
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
504-507-508.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-535>537-539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...BRO/SRT
AVIATION...BRO/SRT
MARINE...BRO/SRT
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