894
FXUS61 KLWX 170129
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED. EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL 4 AM. INCREASED WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT, AND BLENDED IN
LATEST POP GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN ARRIVES BY THE NIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERSISTENT COOL
TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES BY THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAS OUTPACED THE LINE OF
SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRESSURE TROUGH IS RELATIVELY SHARP, AND
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
SO SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE WIND
SHIFT, AND HAVE BLENDED IN THE LATEST HRRR WIND GUIDANCE TO
INDICATE THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SPREADING EASTWARD. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO FALL APART
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AMIDST THE DRY AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPING
WIND, ALTHOUGH MODELS TRY TO HOLD ONTO A BROKEN LINE ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES, THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE MOSTLY SPRINKLES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE RAIN
IS FALLING OUT OF A CLOUD BASE AROUND 8000FT WITH LINGERING
STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH, SO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD HAVE
A SECONDARY EFFECT IN CAUSING GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS MODEST, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NO DAILY RECORDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGHS
FALL INTO THE 80S. THIS DOES COME WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
A LARGE PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MORE LIMITED GIVEN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES BY OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER, PASSING SHOWERS, AND COLD ADVECTION WINDS WILL YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S (40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERSISTENT COOL TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER STILL
REMAINS A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR MONDAY AS DRY, GUSTY WINDS PERSIST
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES BEFORE CALMING OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY,
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL RANGE BETWEEN 43F-60F, WITH LOWS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PROVIDED THAT WINDS ARE CALM BY THEN, FROST/FREEZE COULD BE
A CONCERN AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM UP LATER
IN THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS AT UPPER LEVELS, WITH THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING AROUND MIDWEEK AS A SECOND POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE TAFS TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
TO WESTERLY IS CARRYING NOTABLE GUSTINESS WITH IT, SO HAVE ADDED
A FEW HOURS OF STRONGER WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODELS ATTEMPT TO
HOLD THE LINE OF SHOWERS TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS MAY MEAN THAT ANY RAIN IS MORE
LIKE SPRINKLES. HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS (WITH TEMPO AT MRB),
BUT WITH NO CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS SHOULD DECLINE AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS BREAK UP TOWARD DAWN.
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
AROUND FL050 ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ANY DIRECT MENTION (PROB30) WILL NOT BE
ADDED AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE
IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON MONDAY, WITH
15-20 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KCHO AND
20-25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE LARGELY ABATED THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS TO 20 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 11 PM AND 2 AM, SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE WEST. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
GUSTY POSTFRONTAL WINDS, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM. IT DOES APPEAR WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
THAT.
IT'S POSSIBLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TICK BACK UP FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THAT MAY STRADDLE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
VS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.
WINDS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP THE SECOND
HALF OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS AHEAD OF A POTENT
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT, ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED ON SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS CONTINUED NORTHWEST
WINDS FLOW 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS GUSTS
FALL BELOW SCA GUIDELINES BY THE EARLY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RH'S AND LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, RH MAY BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER TO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, AND WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG.
A WETTING RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO QUELL A RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A VERY DRY AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
MANY DAILY RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, ALL-TIME
APRIL RECORDS LOOK LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
APRIL 16
*RECORD BROKEN TODAY
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)92F (2002) 65F (2017)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (2002)* 63F (2017)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 90F (2012)* 66F (1941)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 90F (2002)* 63F (2017)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 88F (2002)* 62F (2002)
APRIL 17
LOCATIONRECORD HIGHRECORD WARM LOW
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 95F (2002)65F (2002)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (2002)59F (2024)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 93F (2002)66F (1896)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 95F (2002)66F (1976)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 93F (2002)60F (1941)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 94F (1976)65F (1976)
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 90F (1976)68F (1994)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 90F (2002)64F (2002)
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGHS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960
4/27/1915
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960
BALTIMORE (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941,
4/18/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915
ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD WARM-LOWS:
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA)70F 4/29/2017
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011
BALTIMORE (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915
ANNAPOLIS(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/SRT
MARINE...ADS/BRO/SRT
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