054
FXUS61 KLWX 170750
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN ARRIVES BY THE NIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERSISTENT COOL
TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES BY THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NOT AS WARM TODAY, BUT STILL WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NO DAILY RECORDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
HIGHS FALL INTO THE 80S. THIS DOES COME WITH A CONTINUED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
A LARGE PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MORE LIMITED GIVEN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH PASSES BY OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER, PASSING SHOWERS, AND COLD ADVECTION WINDS WILL YIELD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S (40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO OUR WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR MOST (40S MOUNTAINS, NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA). RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S,
WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-30
MPH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY, AND THEN 70S TO NEAR 80 ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 KT
POSSIBLE. STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AROUND FL060 ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE
IN THE EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.
MARINE
NEW SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN AND MIDDLE WATERS FOR
NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT FOR TODAY.
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT,
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF
30 KT. GIVEN THE DEEPER MIXING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, STRONGER
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS CONTINUED NORTHWEST
WINDS FLOW 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS GUSTS
FALL BELOW SCA GUIDELINES BY THE EARLY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RH'S AND NO WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER, RH MAY BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER TO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG.
SUNDAY...WHILE SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL
NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE 100-HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE PRECIPITATION DURATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED, GENERALLY 6 HOURS OR LESS.
FURTHERMORE, VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL CREATE RENEWED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DESPITE MARGINAL HUMIDITIES AND THE LIGHT RAINFALL. THE
10-HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
DAY DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOWERING
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE DAY.
REST OF NEXT WEEK...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED MON AND
TUE WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE ON LIGHT SIDE
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE
MARGINALLY LOW TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. A DRY PATTERN SEEMS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
NO MORE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OR SATURDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-535>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ531>533-538>541.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KJP
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KJP
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