661
FXUS61 KLWX 241900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
COOLER AND RAINY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEARBY THROUGH SATURDAY,
LEADING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK..
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEARBY THROUGH
SATURDAY, LEADING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA, WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MOISTURE GRADIENT LOCATED ALONG THE POTOMAC
RIVER. CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED A BIT BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE
80S WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH 70S AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO
THE EAST. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY, THEY
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ELEVATED.
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS, WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THE MOST LIKELY
PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, BUT A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOME
TOO STRONG THUS FAR. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING ABATES. MILD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL COME CRASHING DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT LIKELY REACHES AS FAR
SOUTH AS I-64 BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COOL, BREEZY EASTERLY
FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THE MORNING HOURS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME STRAY SHOWERS.
THE BULK OF STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OF UP TO
0.5-1.00" LOOKS LIKELY. FOR THOSE ALONG/NORTH OF I-66 AND U.S.
50, MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED (COOLEST OVER NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND). CLOSER TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR, HIGHS COULD NEAR 80
DEGREES ALTHOUGH THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE AREA REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR NOT.
SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WELL AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE REGION WILL PROGRESS OFF TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY, CAUSING
SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE, AND HOLDS STRONG OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO BRING US DRIER
CONDITIONS, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST KEEPS CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC UNTIL
TUESDAY, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN THE REGION UNTIL A
SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TRACK INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING INCREASED
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS WELL AS A
WARM FRONT STEMMING SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TEMPORARILY INCREASE SOMEWHAT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RANGING IN THE 40S-60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO FORM OVER THE MIDWEST AND TRACK EAST HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT TOO WIDESPREAD. BRIEF IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE I-95 TERMINALS, BUT DUE TO LOW
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE AT BWI/MTN, THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS TO BE LOW. CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THEN A
STEADY RAIN OVERTAKES THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS COULD
DROP TO IFR LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASE
IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, BUT UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER IT
WILL BE SUB-VFR.
EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT ESE ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS AT
TERMINALS. 5-10 KNOT WINDS FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY CAUSING LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
TERMINALS.
MARINE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS,
WITH THE THREAT BEING HIGHEST OVER THE POTOMAC RIVER.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING,
AND BECOME STRONGEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH, LOCAL MARINE WIND FIELDS
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO
MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THAT TIME. WINDS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS,
WITH WINDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE STAYING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
DELMARVA WILL CAUSE INCREASE TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION STAGE
DURING HIGH TIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/BRO/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/BRO/SRT
MARINE...KRR/SRT
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