214
FXUS61 KLWX 260757
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE MORE QUICKLY ERODED SO HAVE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH 8 AM. TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOO MILD SO HAVE LOWERED READINGS
TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS A GROWING SIGNAL OF A DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REACHING
THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHILLY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE RENEWED STORM CHANCES
EMERGE BY TUESDAY.
2) SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
3) COOLER AND DRIER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHILLY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE RENEWED
STORM CHANCES EMERGE BY TUESDAY.
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE MOST CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
MOVED DOWN INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION. IN THE WAKE, SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS
SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED BASED ON THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR NOTED
IN THE GOES-19 MULTI-LAYER WATER VAPOR CHANNELS. CONSEQUENTLY
HAVE TAKEN AWAY ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER 8 AM THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE OVERALL DRYING TREND NOTED IN REMOTE SENSING TOOLS,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT. A THICK
STRATUS DECK PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL
EROSION OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS CONFINED TOWARD THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COUPLED BY LOW CLOUDS WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WHILE MOST SPOTS
CURRENTLY SIT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S, EXPECT MARGINAL GAINS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. THIS LARGELY
MATCHES AVAILABLE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (MOS). WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE A FACTOR AS IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
AS THE PARENT FRONTAL ZONE PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRETCH FROM QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS
ARE LIKELY FOR TONIGHT. THIS YIELDS FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
LOOKING AT THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REBOUND BUT WILL STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ALONG
THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A DRY DAY AMIDST SUNNY
SKIES. FORECAST HIGHS PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, COUPLED
WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE NORTH. CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER.
ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE FRONTAL FORECAST PLACES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOWN ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHILE A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS ACCOMPANY THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, SOME RESIDUAL FORCING CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL SUITE, GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME DECAYING
MESOSCALE-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA.
GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, ANY
SEVERE COMPONENT WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. HOWEVER, SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, AT THIS TIME, APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA, JUST SOUTH OF WASHINGTON D.C., AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
AN EXTENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS DUE A WIND SHEAR FACTOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER AND DRIER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE STORY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE LAST DAY IN APRIL AND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN MAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE WILL BE SOME TRAILING ENERGY
BEHIND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD SPAWN AN OCCASIONAL
SHOWER IN SPOTS MIDDAY THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
FOR THE MOST PART, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD EVOLVE IN THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE REGION,
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS
DECK, GENERALLY STRADDLING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. MEANWHILE, KCHO
SEEMS TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE SPOT FOR TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIFR CEILINGS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO SOLID MVFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALL COMES WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A RETURN OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY BY NIGHTFALL AS SKIES CLEAR IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE.
A DRY FORECAST LIES AHEAD FOR MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AMIDST
EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WITH SHOWERS
AGAIN IN THE FOREAST, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
ANY THUNDER CHANCES ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WEDNESDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS THE EARLIER FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
GRADIENTS REMAIN ON THE TIGHT SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE, THESE ADVISORIES
MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
THE MORE SOUTHERN WATERS.
EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF MONDAY INTO
TUSDAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE SHIFTING TO EASTERLY
BY MONDAY EVENING. AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5
TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST HAS CAUSED INCREASED TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT ANNAPOLIS AND DAHLGREN. A COUPLE OTHER TIDAL SITES
LIKE ALEXANDRIA AND HAVRE DE GRACE COULD GET CLOSE DURING THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW
AVIATION...BRO/KLW
MARINE...BRO/KLW
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