089
FXUS61 KLWX 270128 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING MORE QUICKLY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT A CONTINUED CLEARING
TREND WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHILLY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE RENEWED STORM CHANCES
EMERGE BY TUESDAY.
2) SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
3) COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY, WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHILLY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE RENEWED
STORM CHANCES EMERGE BY TUESDAY.
A THINNING STRATUS DECK DISSIPATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK.
AS A FRONTAL ZONE PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRETCH FROM QUEBEC AND NEW BRUNSWICK
DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
SKIES CLEARING, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS ARE LIKELY
FOR TONIGHT. THIS YIELDS FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S, WITH MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.
LOOKING AT THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REBOUND BUT WILL STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ALONG
THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A DRY DAY AMIDST SUNNY
SKIES. FORECAST HIGHS PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, COUPLED
WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE NORTH. CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER.
ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE FRONTAL FORECAST PLACES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOWN ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHILE A WARM
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SOME RESIDUAL FORCING CROSSES THE LOCAL
AREA ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE, GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME DECAYING MESOSCALE-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TRACKING TOWARD
THE AREA. GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION,
ANY SEVERE COMPONENT WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. HOWEVER, SOME
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IF THAT ACTUALLY PANS OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO A BIT OF
INCREASED WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS, AND FORCING AS THE PARENT
TROUGH MAY SWING BY MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY, WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY, REDUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES OVERALL. HOWEVER, ITS CORRESPONDING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AFTER THAT POINT, MEANING THAT
RAIN CHANCES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY ELIMINATED THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY DESPITE DRIER AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN. HOWEVER, THIS WILL MEAN THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
DURING THE DAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS
WEST OF I-81 ON MAY 1ST (EXCEPT FOR GARRETT COUNTY), SO SOME
FROST ADVISORIES OR EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED. TO
THAT END, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, THE WEST END OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE, FURTHER REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING NE WINDS ARE LIKELY
BY NIGHTFALL AS SKIES CLEAR IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A DRY FORECAST LIES AHEAD FOR MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AMIDST
EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WITH SHOWERS
AGAIN IN THE FORECAST, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ANY THUNDER CHANCES ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN
TAF SITES. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE GLIDES BY, WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. 10-15 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TERMINALS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS CALMER OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURS/FRI AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES OFFSHORE, WHICH COULD PERIODICALLY IMPACT AIRFIELD CIGS/VSBYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK DOWN INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WIDER
WATERS INTO THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR LINGERING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ADVISORIES
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL BAY.
EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS TURN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE SHIFTING TO
EASTERLY BY MONDAY EVENING. AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR A TIME HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. THIS LOW MAY BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GUSTS
THROUGHOUT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RANGE 15-20 KNOTS WELL INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS STEADILY FLOW NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION STAGE DURING HIGH
TIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT ANNAPOLIS AND DAHLGREN. A COUPLE OTHER TIDAL SITES
LIKE ALEXANDRIA AND HAVRE DE GRACE COULD GET CLOSE DURING THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY, TOO.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532-
533-540>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
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