361
FXUS61 KLWX 271300
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY LIFTED LEADING TO A CLEAR SKY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE UNSETTLED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) COOLER AND DRY FOR MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY A TRAILING DISTURBANCE EARLY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS BEING FELT WITH COOL MORNING
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 13Z/9 AM EDT, TEMPERATURES
WERE STEADILY RISING INTO/THROUGH THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY AIDED BY A DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. DESPITE THE BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE TRANSIENT
UPPER RIDGE, SOME WARMING WILL BE NEGATED BY THE 1000-850 MB
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. AFTER A DAY SPENT IN THE 50S YESTERDAY
(SUNDAY), TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS IN THE FORECAST BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
TONIGHT'S LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S AGAIN.
FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, A RESIDUAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THESE FEATURES OFTEN TRACK ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT TOWARD REGIONS OF HIGHER CAPE. WITH THE FORECAST
SHOWING STABLE PROFILES OVER THE LOCAL AREA, IT IS LIKELY THIS
MCS DIVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. FOR THE AREA
SPANNING THE ALLEGHENIES INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY, SOME
DECAYING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE STABILITY OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD WIN OUT HERE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS RIPPLES IN
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE 60S UNDERNEATH THE THICKENING CLOUDS.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH PROVIDES A SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA.
TOTAL FORECAST AMOUNTS LARGELY RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GIVEN ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE
LIMITED SIDE, GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 250 TO 500 J/KG.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SUBDUED. AREA-WIDE TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S BEFORE POST-
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES BY THE FOLLOWING DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AND DRY FOR MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
A DEPARTING CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST
PLACES WILL BE DRY WITH SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER BREAKING FOR
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE NEARLY EACH DAY. MODELS, GFS AND EURO, DO HINT OF
A TRAILING DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW THAT COULD SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE, COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO A COOL NORTHWEST WIND, COULD SPAWN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SCATTERED PARTS OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE AS TO WHO GETS THESE
SHOWERS ARE QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
EACH OF THE EXTENDED DAY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANY PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER HAS LARGELY LIFTED. CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDERNEATH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS COMES WITH
A LIGHT WIND THAT SHIFTS FROM EAST/NORTHEASTERLY OVER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY) WILL YIELD SOME
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOAKING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WIND FIELDS LARGELY
VARY BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN EVENTUAL TURN OVER
TO WESTERLY IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
COULD ACCOMPANY A DISTURBANCE EARLY ON FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE AND LOCATIONS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF SUB-VFR
STATUS COULD OCCUR BUT NOT CERTAIN ON WHICH TERMINALS COULD BE
IMPACTED. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY, THEN 10 TO 20
KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT EAST WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF EASTERLY PUSH OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 TO PERHAPS 20
KTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST AND BAY/RIVER BREEZES REACH
THEIR HIGHEST INFLUENCE.
GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE NEXT RAMP UP WOULD BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OR SO ARE POSSIBLE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS (GUSTS 25 KNOTS) THURSDAY, THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS (GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION STAGE DURING HIGH
TIDE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT ANNAPOLIS AND DAHLGREN. A COUPLE OTHER TIDAL SITES
LIKE ALEXANDRIA AND HAVRE DE GRACE COULD GET CLOSE DURING THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY, TOO.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRO/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...BRO/KLW/DHOF
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