233
FXUS61 KLWX 300134
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE AND CONVECTION NOW IS MOSTLY
ELEVATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
3) SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 9PM, WITH
NOTED POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN THE LAST HOUR, AND CONVECTION IS NOW MOSTLY
ELEVATED AS NO SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTS WITH RAIN. AS A
RESULT, THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR THE AREA.
THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT,
THOUGH RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ENSUE ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 40S TO LOW
50S, WITH SPOTTY UPPER 30S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR NORTH FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME, BUT SOME
REINFORCING TROUGHS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AT TIMES. THE
NET EFFECT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE DROUGHT, A WIDESPREAD SOAKING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL OFFER THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
WHILE STILL CHILLY, CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
STRETCH, ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LIMIT THE FROST THREAT.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL SUB-FREEZING DEW POINTS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FROST THREAT.
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS THREAT MAY BE
RELEGATED TO THE ALLEGHENIES THURSDAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE DEEPEST TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY,
LIKELY LEADING TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. SOME RAIN COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM, CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS. HOWEVER, CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME SNOW FLAKES OR GRAUPEL PELLETS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES ON DAYS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING,
LEADING TO THE DRIEST DAY OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARD THE AREA NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS, THERE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THESE
CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AS TIMING AGREEMENT INCREASES. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE IN THE MIX, ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL GYRE WELL TO THE
NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE EAST COAST, THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK,
REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AS
MODELS DEPICTED, THUS TSRA WAS REMOVED FROM ALL THE TAFS. THE
ONGOING SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY
AND CIGS, THOUGH THESE WILL CLEAR BY 04Z. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY MIDNIGHT TO ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS
COULD LINGER AT BWI/MTN THROUGH 06/07Z.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO START OFF WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ANY SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY RELEGATED
TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A
BETTER SHOT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THESE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, AND THEN WEST ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OVERNIGHT "LULL" IN
WINDS, FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING YET AGAIN.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY WITH A
SHIFT TO WESTERLIES. AN UPPER LOW WILL AID IN SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY, MANY OF WHICH WILL BE HIGH BASED. SOME OF
THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SO MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY. WESTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
OFF THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/CJL/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/CJL/KRR
MARINE...ADS/BRO/CJL/KRR
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