466
FXUS61 KLWX 300753
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT
SOLOMON'S ISLAND, DAHLGREN, AND BALTIMORE/FORT MCHENRY, WITH
ALEXANDRIA BECOMING CLOSE AS WELL. WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EASTWARD TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT, HOISTED A SLEW OF FREEZE
WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
3) SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
BASED ON DEW POINT FALLS, THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH AWAY
FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE LADEN IN THE LOW
LEVELS. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS MATERIALIZED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT OUT
TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITIES HAVE LARGELY WAVERED
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF MILE ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE CLOSE
TO NEEDING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE
NEXT HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT BRINGS IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST.
UNTIL THIS OCCURS, EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE ROADS BY REDUCING
SPEEDS AND MAINTAINING A GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE VEHICLE IN
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME, BUT SOME
REINFORCING TROUGHS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S AT TIMES.
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE DROUGHT, A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL OFFER THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
AS SUCH, A MYRIAD OF FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED GIVEN FORECAST LOWS IN THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE.
WHILE STILL CHILLY, CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST
OF THE STRETCH, ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LIMIT THE FROST
THREAT. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE AIR MASS WILL START TO MODERATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL SUB-FREEZING DEW
POINTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
FROST THREAT.
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS THREAT MAY BE
RELEGATED TO THE ALLEGHENIES TODAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE DEEPEST TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY, LIKELY LEADING TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SOME RAIN COULD SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT A MINIMUM,
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE RAIN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS. HOWEVER, CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
SNOWFLAKES OR GRAUPEL PELLETS ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ON DAYS WITH
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING, LEADING TO THE
DRIEST DAY OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARD THE AREA NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS, THERE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THESE
CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AS TIMING AGREEMENT INCREASES. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE IN THE MIX, ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL GYRE WELL TO THE
NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE EAST COAST,
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK, REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WHILE THERE IS
SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES RISE MARKEDLY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA, RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE AT A NUMBER OF TERMINALS. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT. WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY RESIDUAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ERODE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SUCH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THE NIGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD CARRY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. A
COASTAL LOW PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL CARRY THE RISK OF
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD, SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY.
TO FINISH THE WEEKEND, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT EARLY THIS
MORNING, THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A LULL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, STILL ANTICIPATING A RAMP UP IN WINDS AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
GUSTS TO BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. SUCH ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN-MOST WATERS.
SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS OCCUR UPON FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGES.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WHICH
CARRIES GUSTS TO LOW-END ADVISORY LEVELS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CALIBER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH WATER LEVELS BEING QUITE ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING, A
NUMBER OF SITES HAVE PUSHED INTO OR NEARED MINOR, THUS REQUIRING
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. A NUMBER OF THESE ADVISORIES WILL
DROP OFF BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WITH POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING THE WATERS TODAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES
SHOULD FALL RATHER QUICKLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ057.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ504.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ503.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ502-503-506.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO
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