030
FXUS61 KLWX 301924
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
- SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING THE RISK OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY LEADING
TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA AFFECTING THE
TIDEWATER REGION AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
CLOSED LOW/LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR/NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAYTIME, AND THE ENSUING
WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME AREAS COULD REACH 80 ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW EXACTLY THE TROUGH EVOLVES, BUT A FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PIVOT THROUGH, BUT OVERALL
THESE DAYS SHOULD BE DRIER.
AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, AND DEPENDING ON
TIMING, POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH 01Z, THEN WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFFECTING IAD AND MRB. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND A COASTAL LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH MRB ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE MAIN CHESAPEAKE BAY CHANNEL DUE TO NORTHERLY CHANNELING.
ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ504.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ503.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ502-503-506.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>533-537-
539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR
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