230
FXUS61 KLWX 151354
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A NEW KEY MESSAGE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY, SO ADDED A LITTLE MORE DETAIL ON THAT
THREAT WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SHAPING
UP FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY BEFORE SUMMERTIME HEAT SETTLES IN
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE
FRONT HALF OF THE DAY GIVEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND INCOMING HIGH. EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AS A RESULT OF MORE
SUNSHINE. WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL ALLOWING A
FRONT TO TRY AND DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO PIVOT THROUGH.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR T-
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. OVERALL MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS
FOR MOST SATURDAY IN THE 80S AND PUSHING 90 SUNDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP HOT AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST HOWEVER, THAT BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME IN THIS
TYPE OF AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING US A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FEED OFF OF THE
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND HEAT. IT WILL ALSO OF COURSE BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A MUCH HIGHER AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMPARED TO THE
EARLIER DAYS IN THE WEEK. EXPECTING STORMS TO FIRE UP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THE THE ACTUAL FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL DUE TO EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FRONT MAY REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE
AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT POCKETS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SKC CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 20
KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL GO CALM TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH SETTLES NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SHOWER OR T-
STORM POSSIBLY APPROACHING KMRB, KHGR, AND KFDK LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AFTER 23Z/7PM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW GIVEN RESIDUAL
DRY AIR ALOFT.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED TSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY (I.E MRB, HGR, FDK, IAD, BWI) THAT COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY
REDUCED CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT WESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY T-STORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MAINLY AT MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
MARINE
SCAS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS RELAX.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DUE TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY CHANNELING SATURDAY.
WINDS DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO SCA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE IN CHANNELING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY
NIGHT.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...CJL/EST
AVIATION...KLW/CJL/EST
MARINE...KLW/CJL/EST
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