233
FXUS61 KLWX 160058
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
858 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SHAPING
UP FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL ALLOWING A FRONT TO
TRY AND DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO PIVOT
THROUGH. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR T- STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. OVERALL MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS FOR MOST SATURDAY IN THE 80S AND PUSHING
90 SUNDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP HOT AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST HOWEVER, THAT BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME IN THIS
TYPE OF AIRMASS. THE EARLY RUNS OF THE RRFS THAT INCLUDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, SO AM AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MORE CONCERNED
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT THAT DAY THAN EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER,
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING US A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FEED OFF OF THE
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND HEAT. IT WILL ALSO OF COURSE BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A MUCH HIGHER AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMPARED TO THE
EARLIER DAYS IN THE WEEK. EXPECTING STORMS TO FIRE UP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THE THE ACTUAL FRONT WOULD COME THROUGH
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL DUE TO EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FRONT MAY REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING THE
AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT POCKETS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO RETURN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SKC CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GO CALM TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SHOWER OR T- STORM POSSIBLY
APPROACHING KMRB, KHGR, AND KFDK LATE SATURDAY EVENING AFTER
23Z/7PM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW GIVEN RESIDUAL DRY AIR
ALOFT.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED TSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY (I.E MRB, HGR, FDK, IAD, BWI) THAT COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY
REDUCED CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT WESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY T-STORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MAINLY AT MRB.
MORE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AS THIS PUSHES THROUGH.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DUE TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY CHANNELING SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO SCA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE IN CHANNELING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY
NIGHT.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SO SMWS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE MAY 18-20,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***MONDAY, MAY 18TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1877) 72F (2015)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (1987)! 68F (2015)!
BALTIMORE (BWI) 97F (1962) 70F (2017)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 97F (1962) 75F (2017)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F (1911) 66F (2015)!
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 95F (1962)+ 73F (1911)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 95F (1962)+ 69F (1953)+!
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 93F (1962) 71F (2017)
***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+!
BALTIMORE (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)!
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)!
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+!
***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/EST
AVIATION...CJL/EST
MARINE...CJL/EST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page