293
FXUS61 KLWX 201430 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES, ENDING THE RECORD
HEAT.
2) TURNING SHOWERY AND SHARPLY COOLER THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RELIEF IS ON THE WAY TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL BREAK THE RECORD HEAT WHILE BRINGING RENEWED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO HOVER CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES MAKING FOR MORE OF THAT TRUE
SUMMERTIME FEEL IN THE DMV. THE ADDED HEAT AND HUMIDITY
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ENTIRE REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OUT 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC. THIS ALIGNS WITH CSU LEARNING
MACHINE PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH NCARS AI NWP CONVECTIVE
FORECAST AND NSSL PROBS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
THE COVERAGE STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ALTHOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED GIVEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MLCAPE VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 30 KTS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS (DOWNBURSTS) AND LARGE HAIL. CURRENT 00Z CAM GUIDANCE
SHOWS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING. GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES/TOWARD I-81 EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BETWEEN
1- 4 PM BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THE METROS BETWEEN 3-9PM. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS (I.E BEST ORGANIZATION) APPEARS TO
BE NORTH OF I- 66/US-50 GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH MAY SEE
MORE OF A SMATTERING OF STORMS (IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS) PUSHING
THROUGH. STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING GIVEN CURRENT 6 HR QPF VALUES AROUND
1-2" AND 3 HR FFG VALUES JUST ABOVE THOSE MARKS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASED RUNOFF IN TYPICAL URBAN /POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
AREAWIDE WITH RECENT DROUGHT CONCERNS.
CONVECTION SHOULD START TO WANE AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT, BUT SHOWERS
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TURNING SHOWERY AND SHARPLY COOLER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
SYNOPTICALLY, LOOKING AT A TRANSIENT/WEDGE PATTERN THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. WEAK TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
REGION.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF ON AND OFF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TAKE A 25 TO 30 DEGREE DIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO PUSH 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, STRUGGLING
TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LARGER SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING
US LOCKED INTO LOW CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S,
WHILE SOME OTHER SOLUTIONS TRY TO BREAK US OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
THE MOST NOTABLE THING IN THE EXTENDED, OUTSIDE OF THE SHARP
COOLDOWN WILL BE THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN. PERIODS OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4"+ ARE POSSIBLE BACK ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES AND UP INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MD. WITH THAT SAID, THIS
SHOULD EASE SOME OF THE SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z/2PM AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS RETURN AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE
VICINITY OF KMRB/KHGR/KSHD BETWEEN 18-21/2-5PM ADVANCING EAST TOWARD
THE I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-24Z/4-8PM. DID OPT FOR TEMPOS
TOWARD BWI/MTN/MRB WITH PROB30S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD IAD/CHO/DCA
GIVEN HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING A GREATER FOCUS OF CONVECTION
NORTH OF I-66/US-50. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. SOME LOW
CIGS MAY HANG ON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRING ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR PERIODS AT TERMINALS
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS, MORE GUSTY IN HEAVY
SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS MAY NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
CHANNELING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY OPEN/WIDER WATERS),
AND THEN AGAIN IN NORTHERLY CHANNELING ON THURSDAY. SMWS APPEAR
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
WATERS.
EAST TO NORTHEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BAY
AND SURROUNDING INLETS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE MAY 19-20,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-542-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/EST
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF/EST
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