687
FXUS61 KLWX 250129
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
FOR ISOLATED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) WEDGE SIGNATURE HAS
REMAINED A FIXTURE IN THE FORECAST ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE COMBINATION OF SUNSET AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING DEW
POINTS HAS LED TO RAPID SATURATION THIS EVENING, WITH LOWERING
CLOUD BASES AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MIST AND DRIZZLE. SO FAR,
DENSE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED, AND THINK ANY SUCH VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST FACING RIDGELINES THAT
ARE IN THE STRATUS DECK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WHICH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRATIFYING, THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS OF 0.5-1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE
TO RELATIVELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. WITH SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF RAIN INBOUND, COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN GARRETT COUNTY WHERE A PRECEDING RAIN
BAND DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT EARLIER. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER EAST OF I-81. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF I-95 MAY NOT
SEE RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD THE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY LIFTING NORTH OF
THE MASON- DIXON LINE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THUS, THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO WITH SOME
INCREASING OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS
BOUNDARY WORKS IN ACCORDANCE WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSHING COLD
FRONT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A DECENT FOOTPRINT OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-66, POSSIBLY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING DROUGHT, MULTIPLE
DAYS OF RAINFALL HAS YIELDED SOME SATURATED SOILS. SPOTTY
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE ANY OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
OCCUR. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA TO COVER THIS REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
LARGELY GOING TO BE MEANDERING NORTH/SOUTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN, ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA. SUCH IMPULSES ALOFT WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOW IMPACTFUL THESE ARE IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT IN TIME. MULTI-
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DO SHOWN AN UPWARD TREND IN
NUMBERS WHICH MAKES FOR MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EXTENDING WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA, AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC. NORTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSPORT A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRIER
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE IN THE
PATTERN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
HAS MAINTAINED A THICK STRATUS DECK ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SUNSET
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW POINTS LED TO A RAPID DROP IN
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, AND EXPECT CHO TO EVENTUALLY FOLLOW SUIT. AT THE
MOMENT, DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY. AVIATION GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
A MIXTURE OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT, WHICH ALSO COMES WITH
THE RISK OF INCREASING SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL VARY IN DIRECTION AT TIMES BUT
REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE.
THE MEMORIAL DAY FORECAST WILL SEE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS IFR
CEILINGS ALL DAY, WHILE HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT MVFR IF NOT VFR
FOR A TIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. KEPT THE TAFS TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MVFR AS OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A 30 PERCENT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED FOR MANY TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. IT
DOES APPEAR THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE PRESSING SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH, WITH A
LIGHT ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT REDEVELOPING. LOW CEILINGS AND/OR
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY THROUGH MID-
WEEK WHICH WILL CERTAINLY FAVOR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES ARE TO WARM AT THE SAME TIME WHICH SUGGESTS SOME
LOSS OF THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DAYS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.
MARINE
DESPITE THE BROAD GRADIENT FORMED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR
EASTERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., WINDS REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
SUB-ADVISORY CALIBER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY/MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CAVEATS TO NOTE ARE A MULTITUDE
OF WIND SHIFTS WHICH OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS NORTH/SOUTH
OF THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY OCCUR
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
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