068
FXUS61 KLWX 251403 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GLIDES UP THE COAST. HOWEVER,
THE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THE BOUNDARY MAKES TODAY IS GOING TO
DETERMINE WHERE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS WILL BE RIGHT
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-66/US- 48, THOUGH SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE UP TO I-70. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THERE
COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THAT CROPS UP IF ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
MOVES OVER AN URBAN AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER, AND STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE DUE TO WEAK
FLOW.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY WANE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL STRAY SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST. WIDESPREAD DENSE MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS WINDS GO CALM AREAWIDE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COMPLETELY
SATURATED.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NY/PA ON TUESDAY, BUT WON'T
HAVE MUCH SUPPORT TO MOVE SOUTH DUE TO SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC, WITH
TROUGHING REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY, AND MEANDERS A BIT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH MID WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WEEK.
CONDITIONS START TO TREND DRIER BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY, AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. AFTER
DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, CLOUDS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE
TEMPERATURES HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 70S DURING THE DAYTIME.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND TRANSITIONING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AS OF
RIGHT NOW SHOWS ANY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS STAYING TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A STALLED FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AT CHO AND IAD/DCA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS IFR CIGS AREAWIDE, HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR A TEMPO AT DCA,
IAD, AND CHO. THE PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER AT BWI, MTN, AND MRB,
SO WILL GO WITH PROB30 AT THOSE TERMINALS.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTH QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH CALM
WINDS EXPECTED. LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LIKELY CONTINUED
RESTRICTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS TERMINALS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS COULD REACH
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN LIGHT.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARD TO
MARINERS WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/KRR/SRT
MARINE...LFR/KRR/SRT
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