299
FXUS61 KLWX 260052
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND FOG HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY NORTH OF I-66/US-50. TWO MORE DAYS OF CLOUDY
AND SHOWERY WEATHER WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WARM ALTHOUGH CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... TEMPERATURES WARM ALTHOUGH CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STILL MONITORING THE PLACEMENT/PROGRESSION OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MD DOWN TO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VA. WITH THAT
SAID, MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CLOUD
COVER, AND FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST 18Z/00Z CAM
GUIDANCE.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS OF 8PM SUGGEST THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AND EAST OF I-95
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY. GOES
INFRARED/NIGHTTIME MICRO RGB SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF WHERE THE FRONTS RESIDES AND UP ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THIS AREA HAS EVEN SEEN SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR PUMPS
INTO AREAS ALONG THE PA/MD LINE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 02-04Z/ 10PM-12AM, BEFORE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS, FOG,
AND MIST RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
PER THE HREF/REFS REMAIN THE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-66/US-50 AND NORTH
OF I-70 WHERE SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED. CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH LOWER FURTHER SOUTH ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS HIGHER FOR LOW
CLOUDS/MIST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A COUPLE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
VA/SOUTHERN MD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND
IMMEDIATE I-95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S.
IT'S A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-66/US-50. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO THE FRONT
REMAINING STALLED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
EACH DAY WITH A FEW FILTERED BREAKS OF SUN, ESPECIALLY UP ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN VA, WESTERN MD, CENTRAL MD, AND EASTERN WV PANHANDLE WHERE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DWINDLE AFTER DUSK WITH AREAS OF FOG, DRIZZLE, AND OW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOW 80S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY, WHILE A SPRAWLING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH WILL TRANSPORT MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80, AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 60S INTO THE 50S, MAKING
IT FEEL LESS HUMID.
THEREAFTER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE ON SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A REINFORCING UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. MOST SOLUTIONS FAVOR THAT CLOSED LOW TRACKING TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BUT IF IT WERE TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH, A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO VFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z/11PM
AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE
BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF KCHO BASICALLY IN A LINE EXTENDING FROM KGSO NORTHEAST TOWARD
KLYH AND KRIC. THIS IS WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH POCKETS OF
LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND MIST REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES CAMS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. DO
THINK MVFR TO IFR AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION. LESSER
CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FOCUS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
KIAD/KMRB TO KDCA/KBWI. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SOME HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS TO RADIATE OUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES BOTTOMING
OUT BETWEEN 1-3SM BETWEEN 07-12Z/3-8AM TUESDAY. VSBYS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK INTO THE VFR AND
MVFR RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY
AT TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66/US-50. DID OPT FOR PROB30S AT
THE BIG 3 TERMINALS (IAD, BWI, DCA) ALONG WITH KCHO DURING THE
18Z- 23Z TIMEFRAME. GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR -TSRA LOOKS TO BE
DOWN TOWARD KCHO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY CAN BE FOUND. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER
WATERS, SOUTH OF DRUM POINT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
SMWS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO TANGIER SOUND POINTS SOUTH AND
AND EAST WHERE THE FRONT RESIDES. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHAOTIC
MOTIONS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS TOWARD THE WIDER WATERS GIVEN
THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
NORTHERLY GUSTS MAY NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJP/EST
AVIATION...KJP/EST
MARINE...KJP/EST
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