578
FXUS61 KLWX 290121
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
- 2) GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND BUT YET KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND BRING A DRY
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AND
COULD ONLY BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S
(60S MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF COLDER SHELTERED HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS HAVE
SOME PATCHY FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. THE PARENT
HIGH WILL HOLD FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN IT IS SLIGHTLY CUT OFF AS WELL AS ITS
SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL/RETROGRADING TRACK. AT THE MOMENT, CONDITIONS LOOK
MAINLY DRY DESPITE THE LOW PIVOTING BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN A
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE LOW TO TAP INTO AND SEND OVER US.
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY
MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM CLOSER TO
NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF
NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS) SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NW
FLOW BECOMES S LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AM BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW
FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SUB-SCA
LEVEL WINDS RETURN TO THE WATERS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A DRY FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER DRY BACKDOOR FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT, WINDS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS),
THOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IF IT TRENDS A BIT STRONGER.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/CPB/KRR
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/KRR
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