310
FXUS61 KLWX 290742
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EARLIER, BUT THAT WILL BE EXPIRING AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, A QUIET
WEEK OF WEATHER YIELDED VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
- 2) GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND BUT YET KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
(MID/UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING A DRY
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY ONLY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT NO RAINFALL. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S (60S MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COLDER SHELTERED HIGH
ELEVATION VALLEYS HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, BUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN IT IS SLIGHTLY CUT
OFF AS WELL AS ITS SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL/RETROGRADING TRACK. AT THE
MOMENT, CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY DRY DESPITE THE LOW PIVOTING BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE LOW
TO TAP INTO AND SEND OVER US.
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY
MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM CLOSER TO
NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO WINDS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS) SATURDAY, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS FROM VSBYS OR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NW
FLOW BECOMES S LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AM BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW
FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXIST THROUGH 330 AM, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SUB-SCA WINDS RETURN TO THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND A DRY FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER DRY BACKDOOR FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT, WINDS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS),
THOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IF IT TRENDS A BIT STRONGER.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL
MARINE...DHOF/CJL
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