998
FXUS61 KLWX 292034
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
434 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A SHORT FUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
- 2) NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT YET KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S (MID/UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING A DRY
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY ONLY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT NO RAINFALL. HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE 70S (60S MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COLDER SHELTERED HIGH
ELEVATION VALLEYS HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, BUT ABOUT 5
DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
A SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW OFF THE COAST, OR AT THE VERY LEAST,
THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE'S EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COULD ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP. SO WITH THAT
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY FROM
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THOSE PROBABILITIES GENERALLY DON'T SHOW UP IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO EXERT A LOT OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S).
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE LARGE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS) TOMORROW, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS FROM VSBYS OR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS UNLIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING AWAY AND DEEP MIXING COUPLED
WITH BAY/RIVER BREEZES HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION IS RATHER ERRATIC VARYING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND OR A LITTLE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS, FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY OF
GUSTS 18-22 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON A WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN LATE
MAY TO WARRANT THE HEADLINE.
SUB-SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH SCA IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW IN NORTHERLY FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WINDS APPEAR FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY, AS WELL AS IN A
SCENARIO IN WHICH LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT
THIS TIME, MINOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THIS WATER SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER CHANCE OF
MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-
531-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ532-533-540-541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ534-537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
536-542.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...ADS/KLW/DHOF/CJL
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