888
FXUS61 KLWX 301344
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED A BIT AND WINDS RAISED A BIT BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
- 2) NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TODAY INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A DECENT PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY, BUT NO RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO
MID 70S (60S MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COLDER SHELTERED HIGH ELEVATION
VALLEYS HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, BUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, BUT ONLY BY ABOUT 5
DEGREES AREAWIDE. ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THIS ONE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FRONT. AGAIN, ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT,
WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING CLOUDS EARLY ON IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AND GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
MOISTURE COULD LINGER IN THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW POP-
UP SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM STILL DIFFERS A
BIT IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND GOING INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME,
MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS EAST,
TEMPERATURES COULD START TO CREEP UP A BIT. BEHIND IT, A COLD FRONT
COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, EXPECT PERSISTENT MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS FROM VSBYS OR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
MARINE
THE SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE WATERS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 32 KT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, SO BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY, TURNING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT FRONT, SO SCAS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS FLOW PRIMARILY NORTHERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE
DURING THEN. OTHERWISE, GUSTS RANGE 5-10 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE IN WATER
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER CHANCE OF
MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/SRT
MARINE...ADS/CJL/SRT
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