139
FXUS61 KLWX 301902
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT DUE TO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
- 2) LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE
WEEKEND.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW INTO NORTH
CAROLINA. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN
ITS WAKE WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
EFFICIENTLY. THE URBAN CENTERS AND SHORELINE MAY STAY IN THE
50S, BUT MOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. WITH FORECAST DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE APPALACHIANS, COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL HIGH ELEVATION COLD AIR
SINKS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO FORM ALONG THE RIVERS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. PLENTY OF SUN CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE ENSUING DEW POINT
ADVECTION WILL HELP HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY, WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A
WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE
DRY, AS ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE
APPRECIABLY FROM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS DRY AS WE SIT SANDWICHED BETWEEN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH
AXIS/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY'S
COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS A GUIDE FOR POTENTIALLY TWO COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO WORK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND LIKELY OUT TO SEA. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD, SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE TERRAIN, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET AWAY DRY WITH JUST SOME EXTRA
CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE FRONT TOWARD THE COAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA (SET TO ANCHOR OVER THE CENTRAL APPS MIDWEEK) EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS
DUE IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE 1024-1028 MB HOLDING 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD THROW A
SPOTTY SHOWER/SPRINKLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 (IN PARTICULAR SOUTH
OF WASHINGTON DC) WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE CHANCES FOR
RAIN REMAIN LOW BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE, THERE HAS STILL
BE A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY AS TO HOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
EVOLVE. SOMETHING WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GIVEN THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED WITH SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT
REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD AND THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND TO ENSUE. WITH RETURN
FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES BACK AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOW THIS FAR OUT
ALTHOUGH CSU LEARNING MACHINE PROBABILITIES, CIPS, AND NSSL
PROBABILITIES HINT ON A LOW END THREAT DURING THE WEEKEND
PERIOD. OF COURSE, THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE SINCE WE ARE
SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM DETERMINING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING
BACK INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND PUSHING 90 FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW TO MID 50S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD SUNDAY,
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH WINDS GENERALLY FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
MAY CREATE BRIEF REDUCTIONS AT TERMINALS MAINLY WEST OF MRB TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GUSTING 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY A BIT HIGHER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. CHANNELING COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE MIDDLE
BAY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, TURNING WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
THE CURRENT FRONT, SO SCAS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER WATERS OF THE
BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC. THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN AREA OF WOBBLING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST AND INCOMING HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS FALL BACK
BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING OVER
THE WIDER WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS ARE DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SURGE
IN WATER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER
CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANNAPOLIS MAY EVEN
APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
LOWER WATER LEVELS MONDAY, THEY MIGHT RISE AGAIN TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST
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